Recently, the macroeconomic community has gone crazy! How many times will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2026? Two groups hold opposing views, one side is Bloomberg confidently stating 'at least 4 times', while the majority of institutions shake their heads saying 'at most 1 time', even the Federal Reserve's own dot plot has become a 'Rashomon', who can be trusted?

The core contradiction is quite simple: everyone is not on the same page regarding the understanding of the 'dot plot'!

First, let's clarify what the dot plot is — it is not the Federal Reserve's 'commitment to interest rate cuts'; at most, it reflects the 'ideal interest rate votes' of 19 FOMC members. In simple terms: 19 individuals based on current data believe the interest rate should reach a certain level in 2026, and the midpoint is the dot plot. However, only 12 individuals can actually vote on rate cuts; moreover, members' opinions can change, and with new data, their positions may reverse!

Here's a very straightforward example: both committee members think there should be one rate cut, but one wants it in January and the other in March, so they undermine each other during the vote; some members initially wanted three cuts, but knowing no one supported them, they voted in favor at each meeting just to push the policy a bit more. So the dot matrix says 'one cut,' but the actual operation might be completely different!

So why does Bloomberg dare to shout 'four cuts'? The key lies with two people: Chief Economist Anna Wong and her focus on the 'inflation + unemployment rate' combo.

First, let's look at the current situation: the second half of 2025 is a bit magical—unemployment rose from 4.2% in July to 4.4% in September, and CPI rose from 2.7% to 3.0%. Both data points are rising, and missing the October data explains why the committee members are in such a heated argument: some fear unemployment and want more rate cuts, while others fear inflation and are hesitant to cut!

But Anna Wong discovered the key: her tracked inflation leading indicators show that, at the earliest after February, CPI could significantly decline. And the core principle of the Fed is right there—if the unemployment rate continues to hover around 4.4% and CPI drops below 2.5%, even the most hawkish committee members have to nod for a rate cut, otherwise it would go against their duties!

Comparing to 2019 makes it clearer: that year there was 'good employment but too low inflation,' leading the Fed to actively cut rates to stimulate; in 2025, it is 'high inflation but worsening employment,' and as soon as inflation drops, the necessity for rate cuts becomes very clear!

Ordinary people don't need to understand complex models; just focus on three data points, simple and easy to remember:

The upcoming November data: as long as CPI doesn't continue to rise and unemployment doesn't fall, it's a good signal;

The December data released in January: putting the two months of data together can roughly determine whether there are conditions for a rate cut in January;

The February data released in March: this is the most critical validation—if CPI really drops significantly, the market might find a temporary bottom in March-April!

In summary: rate cuts are not about 'guessing riddles,' but 'looking at data to make decisions.' No matter how heated the arguments are now, once these three rounds of data are released, the answers will be revealed naturally. For the crypto and stock markets, the opportunities in 2026 are likely hidden within this data~