Will the cryptocurrency bull market last forever?
Take Bitcoin, for example. In October, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $126,000, its momentum seemingly capable of tearing a hole in the sky.
But now, it's hovering around $90,000, subtly signaling the approaching bear market. Have you noticed?
The "four-year halving cycle" of Bitcoin hasn't failed, but the dynamics have subtly changed.
After this halving, the peak occurred as expected at the corresponding time. However, unlike previous bear markets, this drop might not be as severe, given the support from institutional ETFs and whale trading. The bottom will likely stabilize in the $30,000-$60,000 range.
But the current situation of the US Treasury hoarding large amounts of cash without injecting it into the market is like draining water from a large pool of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, with highly volatile assets like Bitcoin bearing the brunt of the impact.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below key moving averages, a classic sign of a bear market. On-chain data indicates whales are exiting while retail investors are buying, a familiar tactic playing out again. The Fear & Greed Index is also low, but don't rush to buy the dip now; the true bottom often appears when panic persists.
In the 2026 bear market, institutions will be the main players, profiting from each other.
Retail investors must adjust their strategies to survive, avoiding leverage. Contract trading is a death sentence in a bear market. If the price falls below $40,000, you can buy in batches, but always keep sufficient funds and avoid putting all your eggs in one basket.
Next year, the US PMI and Federal Reserve policy will be key indicators.
I've experienced both the darkest and brightest moments in the crypto market. In the long run, Bitcoin's bottom is rising, and it's still worth watching.
However, don't fight the market in the short term; in a bear market, it's about minimizing losses. Keep cash on hand, control your impulses, and the end of 2026 may be the starting point for a wealth reshuffling. Follow Anqi for the protection of your trading.
