The expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options this Friday occurs in a context of widespread caution in the crypto market. Close to 4.5 billion dollars in derivatives contracts expire today, while traders navigate a combination of seasonal low liquidity and recent macroeconomic adjustments.
This event occurs after a period of contained price action, with both assets operating within narrow ranges. Positioning in options, maximum pain levels, and open interest provide key signals on how the market may behave after expiration.
Bitcoin: balanced expiration near maximum pain level
The expiration of Bitcoin options represents the largest portion of the total expiring today. The asset trades around 92,249 dollars, while the maximum pain level is at 90,000 dollars, a key reference for contract closure.
Total open interest amounts to 39,826 contracts, consisting of 18,974 call options and 20,852 put options, resulting in a Put/Call ratio of 1.10. This balance suggests that traders do not show strong directional conviction and expect a relatively contained expiration.
According to Deribit, the concentration of contracts around 90,000 dollars reflects a market awaiting a clearer catalyst. After weeks of sideways movement, many participants seem to prioritize risk management over aggressive bets.
The notional value of Bitcoin options expiring today is around 3,700 million dollars, consolidating this event as one of the most relevant of the month, although there are no clear signs of extreme pressure in one direction.
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Ethereum: greater defensive bias despite expectations of volatility
Ethereum presents a different profile in this expiration. The price is around 3,242 dollars, with maximum pain at 3,100 dollars, slightly below the current level.
Total open interest reaches 237,879 contracts, distributed in 107,282 calls and 130,597 puts, resulting in a Put/Call ratio of 1.22. This structure indicates a higher demand for downside protection against Bitcoin.
According to Deribit, although the overall positioning of Ethereum has shifted towards a more neutral distribution, there is a notable concentration of call options above 3,400 dollars. This suggests that, despite caution, some traders still assign value to scenarios of higher volatility.
The notional value of Ethereum options expiring today is approaching 770 million dollars, a relevant figure but clearly secondary compared to the weight of Bitcoin in this event.
Macro environment: liquidity support, but dominant caution
The expiration occurs shortly after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and resumed purchases of Treasury bills for 40,000 million dollars. According to Greeks.live, these measures provide liquidity support, but are not enough to dissipate market caution.
"Calling this a restart of QE or the beginning of a new bull market is premature," they said, emphasizing that year-end periods historically see the weakest liquidity conditions in cryptocurrencies.
Analysts emphasize that year-end periods tend to present the weakest liquidity conditions for the crypto market. Moreover, more than half of the current open interest is concentrated in expirations on December 26, while implied volatility continues to decrease.
The options market maintains a negative bias, with puts trading at a premium over calls. This reflects both covered call strategies and a persistent demand for protection against structural weakness.
Deribit also highlighted additional short-term pressures, such as ETF outflows, loss of premium in Strategy, and tensions in the mining sector. Nonetheless, the long-term momentum in Bitcoin and Ethereum remains intact according to analysts.
In summary
The expiration of options for 4.5 billion dollars finds the market in a balanced and prudent posture. Bitcoin remains close to its maximum pain level with nearly balanced positions, while Ethereum shows a more defensive bias.
Although the expiration is likely to generate some short-term volatility, the environment suggests that the movements could be contained. After the liquidation, the market could stabilize as traders adjust positions for the final stretch of the year.
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