In recent years, the stories in the cryptocurrency world are more magical than movies. Some became rich overnight, while others went to zero in an instant. I have tried various complex strategies, filled my screen with indicators, and consumed news to the point of insomnia. In the end, I found that the more flashy the operations, the easier it is to incur inexplicable losses. Until I forced myself to simplify the logic and summarized a set of 'lazy strategies', I managed to survive through three bull and bear markets and accumulated stable profits. What I share today is purely my personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice!
1. Why did I choose 'lazy' instead of 'strive'?
The cryptocurrency market trades 24/7. If you follow your emotions to chase highs and lows, you will eventually get burned. I have seen too many people lose money due to over-trading.
My core transformation can be summed up in one sentence: 'Do not treat the market as a casino but rather as a farmland.' Farmers do not rush to cut all their crops just because it rained today; instead, they plant, fertilize, and harvest according to the seasons. The same goes for trading; you have to wait for the season (trend), not fidget every day.
For example: In September 2023, Bitcoin formed a small bullish candle on support with increased volume, indicating a temporary stop in the decline. If at that time one blindly followed the trend and sold, they might miss the subsequent rebound.
Two, my 'four-step lazy person's strategy'
The key to this method is mechanical execution, avoiding emotional interference.
1 Choosing coins: Only focus on 'active players,' avoid 'zombie coins'
Put coins that have been on the rise list within 11 days into your watchlist (like Binance's rise list, CoinGecko's hot list), but eliminate those that have continuously fallen for more than 3 days—capital may have already fled.
Do not develop faith in any project; the focus is on whether the capital is active.
2 Direction: Consider only when the monthly MACD shows a golden cross
Switch to the monthly chart and only look at whether the MACD shows a golden cross (DIF line breaks above the DEA line). This step can filter out 80% of the noise.
For example, when Bitcoin's monthly MACD shows a red bar in 2024, it indeed entered a longer downward phase. The monthly chart is not used to predict the lowest point, but rather to indicate the general direction.
3 Finding entry points: Lurking near the daily 60-day moving average
At the daily level, wait for the price to pull back to near the 60-day moving average, and at the same time, a strong bullish candle appears (sudden increase in volume), which is the entry signal.
For example, SOL stabilized after retracing to the 20-day moving average in August 2024, then rose by 50%. The moving average represents the 'consensus cost' of the market; breaking below means capital withdrawal, while breaking above indicates capital inflow.
4 Discipline: Mechanical take profit and stop loss
Sell 1/3 at a 30% profit, another 1/3 at 50%, and clear out if it falls below the 60-day line.
Why operate this way? For example, after Bitcoin reached a high point in 2021, it fell back; if you stubbornly hold without taking profits, you might lose all your profits.
Even if you miss the peak, do not feel sorry; the market always has opportunities. Protecting your capital is more important than making more.
Three, why can this 'stupid method' win?
Counterintuitive, but follow the trend
The most misleading thing in the crypto world is the feeling that 'this time is different.' In fact, historical patterns always repeat; for example, when BTC is below 0 on the monthly chart, it often approaches the bottom. The stupid method forces you to ignore short-term noise and capture the core trend.
Risk is controllable; do not gamble with your life
Diversified investment is key; I never exceed 20% in a single coin position. Even if encountering a black swan (like a project collapse), it won't hurt the principal.
Time freedom, do not overwork yourself
No need to stay up all night watching the market; checking the market 1-2 times a day is sufficient. The time saved can be used to study industry dynamics (like new public chains, Depin track), which can catch long-term opportunities.
Four, a final reminder of a few pitfalls
Do not blindly trust technical indicators: MACD and RSI are just tools; combining multiple indicators can improve winning rates.
Reject FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): For example, chasing after a meme coin that skyrockets often leads to losses.
Keep a trading log: Reviewing after each operation can help discover strategy flaws.
The essence of trading cryptocurrencies is not about who is smarter but about who can last longer. My 'lazy person's strategy' is essentially a survival rule—use rules to lock in greed and fear, and wait patiently for the trend's gifts. If you are also tired of complicated operations, you might as well try simplifying your thinking; communication is welcome, but remember: your money, you must be responsible for it!
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