The historical growth of Bitcoin shows notable patterns often used by analysts to predict future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, released a new analysis based on the Bitcoin developmental wave model.
Experts remain optimistic about the coming year; however, they continue to offer their opinions cautiously.
How strong is the sixth growth wave for Bitcoin?
In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer highlighted that the wave development model in Bitcoin shows that each new growth cycle expands in smaller size but lasts longer.
Using historical data since 2010, Timmer suggested that Bitcoin is currently in its fifth wave. The cycle began at the 2022 low of $16,603 and may reach an expected peak of around $151,360.
"It's hard to know whether a new winter has arrived in real time. But the evolving wave structure of Bitcoin's mature network curve shows that the recent bull market (from around $16,000 in 2022) seems quite mature," said Jurrien Timmer.
In the short term, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin's performance at the end of the year. Investor sentiment has improved thanks to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing.
In the long term, he hinted at a sixth growth wave. The model uses linear projections derived from data collected during the previous five waves.
According to this model, the bearish Bitcoin slope chart (in pink) indicates:
The fourth wave: Bitcoin grew 20 times over 153 weeks from the bottom to the peak.
The fifth wave (ongoing): Bitcoin could grow 9 times over 160 weeks.
The sixth wave (upcoming): Bitcoin could grow about 5 times over 168 weeks.
However, the model does not specify the exact bottom from which the sixth wave will start. Timmer suggested a potential support level at the current cycle's minimum of around $80,554.
These forecasts suggest a relatively positive start to 2026, as Bitcoin has not completed its fifth wave yet.
Jimmy Chiu, the COO and co-founder of Axis, shared a similar perspective with BeInCrypto. He expects the effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to show soon.
"We tend to lean towards a period of stability and consolidation rather than an immediate V-shaped rebound. The market needs time to absorb the recent volatility. However, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic for the first quarter of 2026 as interest rate cuts eventually translate into global liquidity and a reset of institutional distributions in January," said Jimmy Chiu to BeInCrypto.
However, some observations point to a more pessimistic scenario. 2026 is a midterm election year. Historical results show that Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in such years, with declines ranging from 60% to 75%.
These divergent analyses suggest a 2026 adventure for investors. Institutional investors, in particular, have continued to accumulate Bitcoin over the past two years since Bitcoin exchange-traded funds were approved.
