Bitcoin has almost risen by 2% in the last 24 hours and continues to stay above the $92,200 level. There is still a slow trend in the daily chart, but strengthening signals are seen in the 4-hour chart.
Short-term charts reflect market movements more quickly, so the next few sessions seem to determine whether Bitcoin will finally test the $95,000 level. Experts say this level will be decisive in paving the way for a rise in BTC price.
Short-Term Strength Continues but Risks Persist
It appears that Bitcoin is close to forming a bullish EMA crossover on the 4-hour chart. EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average, giving more weight to recent prices. Traders prefer this indicator to detect early trend changes. A bullish crossover occurs when the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, indicating increased buying pressure. Currently, the 50-EMA is about to cross above the 100-EMA.
The gap between the two EMAs has significantly narrowed. If the crossover completes, it is possible for Bitcoin to find a cleaner path towards $95,700. It is known to be an important resistance. However, the Bull Bear Power indicator, which shows which side controls the candles, seems to have weakened. If there is a renewed weakening in the indicator, the crossover may not complete. The main risk for the short term lies here.
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Here the market commentary seems to align with the chart. Analysts from B2BINPAY, an all-in-one crypto ecosystem for businesses, pointed out a similar point in their exclusive statement to BeInCrypto:
According to analysts at B2BINPAY: ‘Bitcoin continues to trade in the $92,000–$93,000 range; however, all attempts to break above $95,000 have so far resulted in failure. There is a lack of compelling factors to strongly surpass this threshold.’
‘…If this happens, we might see Bitcoin trying to test $96,000. If the market can maintain price stability above this area, the next step could be a movement towards $100,000,’ they stated.
This view emphasizes that the $95,000 level is a real barrier, and if short-term momentum is maintained, a long-term rise above $100,000 is also possible.
Inactivity is Increasing: It Could Be a Trigger
Spent Coins Age Band measures how much coins have moved between different groups of holders. When the metric falls, old coins remain inactive (high dormancy period). Selling pressure decreases, which typically coincides with a price recovery.
This measurement dropped from 24,100 on December 10 to 12,500 today. This indicates a nearly 50% decline. Similar declines in the past have triggered rises.
Between December 2 and December 9, spent coins fell from 27,800 to 9,200. Subsequently, Bitcoin gained approximately 5% in value.
Between November 21 and November 24, Bitcoin had jumped by 8%, rising from $85,500 to $92,300 due to a decline in spent coins.
The current decline is smaller, but the scenario is still similar. As mobility decreases (with spent coins declining), the simultaneous occurrence with an EMA crossover attempt is a strong signal to watch for in the short-term chart.
Short-Term Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch This Week
The first significant resistance in the short-term Bitcoin price chart is $93,300. Bitcoin has not been able to close above this level on a 4-hour basis since December 9. A clean close would open space to $94,300.
If the EMA crossover completes and momentum continues, it could reach $95,700. This is the decisive line for the crucial areas pointed out by analysts.
Support is currently at $90,800. If it falls below, $89,300 will come back into focus, and it may take longer to reach $95,000.
Currently, there are three legs for Bitcoin: a potential EMA crossover, a decrease in the amount of spent coins, and the price holding at a resistance area. If buyers do not compromise on support and the positive trend in these metrics continues, Bitcoin may eventually have a chance to test $95,000 (or even exactly $95,700).
