A wild trader's musings
I used to be like many others, beaten down by life until I met a benefactor who guided me into the industry, rolling from a five-figure capital to an eight-figure one. Today, I won't discuss technical indicators, but I will share six iron rules that have allowed me to survive until now. These are not about predicting rises and falls, but about how to preserve capital and maintain mindset in this cannibalistic market.
1. Volume is the 'footsteps' of the main players
The most honest language of the market is transaction volume, not K-lines. A rapid rise but a slow fall usually indicates that the main players are quietly accumulating; while a large bearish candle after a rapid rise is mostly the beginning of the harvest. Remember: low volume indicates a cold market, high volume indicates capital movement. Don't get caught up in price fluctuations; first, check if the volume is 'telling the truth'.
2. A flash crash is a knife, don't catch it barehanded.
After a crash, a rebound is like poison coated in sugar. Especially when the decline is sharp and swift, but the rebound is weak and powerless, it is likely a selling trap. Real main forces will not give you a comfortable zone to 'buy the dip'; those seemingly attractive deep V rebounds are often the last knife to cut the leeks. Patience to wait for market sentiment to stabilize is more important than betting on a rebound.
3. High-level horizontal consolidation with reduced volume is the calm before the storm.
A surge in volume at the top does not necessarily indicate a top signal (it could be a handover), but long-term reduced volume horizontal consolidation at high levels is definitely a dangerous signal. This indicates that capital is on the sidelines and liquidity is exhausted; a large order could break the market. Do not dance on the silent cliff edge; pulling back in time can avoid an unexpected crash.
4. The bottom is not guessed, but '磨' (grinded) out.
A single volume rebound does not signify a bottom; it may be a trap to lure in buyers. A real bottom needs to go through a process of reduced volume fluctuations → increased volume breakthroughs → pullbacks for confirmation. For example, every major bottom of Bitcoin has emerged after the market becomes numb, then producing a series of increasing volume bullish candles. It is better to miss the first 10% of the rise than to act before the structure is solid.
5. The candlestick chart is the script, but the volume is the director.
Price is just the result; trading volume is the trace of capital competition. For example, if there is an abrupt decrease in volume during a rise, it indicates insufficient following funds; a surge in volume of panic selling at the end of a decline is, on the contrary, a signal of a bottom. Learn to use 'volume perspective' to see through market sentiment, rather than being led by the red and green of candlesticks.
6. Top mentality: dare to be in cash, do not cling to beliefs.
The most fatal thing in the crypto circle is not missing out but losing control. My habit is: after making a profit, forcibly withdraw 50% to lock in profits; if losses exceed 3%, stop loss unconditionally. The market always has opportunities, but if the principal is gone, it is truly gone. The difference between an expert and a novice is not how many bull stocks they catch, but whether they can have a cash position to drink tea in the chaos of the market.
There is no 'stable profit' Holy Grail in the crypto circle, only survivors who continuously evolve. My benefactor once told me: 'Every penny you earn is the realization of understanding; every penny you lose is a flaw in understanding.' Eight years have passed, and my understanding of this sentence has deepened.
If you are new to the circle, do not rush to all-in; first, use a small amount of capital to test and find a rhythm that suits you (for example, I only trade Bitcoin and Ethereum on medium-term trends); if you are already wounded, take a break and analyze the situation—this is more important than chasing after losses. Market conditions will always cycle, but most people lose due to mindset—daring not to buy in a bear market, unwilling to sell in a bull market, frequently cutting losses in a sideways market.
The market is never short of opportunities; it only lacks people who can survive to the next bull market. May you not stumble in the dark in this cycle. Follow Xiang Ge, to learn more first-hand information and precise points of knowledge in the crypto circle, becoming your navigation in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
