The true wisdom in the cryptocurrency world is often hidden in the opposition of the majority.
Friends, I'm Old Wang. I've been in the cryptocurrency circle for ten years. Today, I won't discuss complex technical indicators; I just want to share an experience I consider 'lucky'—last year, on the day of a major exchange incident, I personally saw a KOL who was hailed as a 'god' shout in a live stream, 'Ethereum at $8900 is the bottom', and the comments section responded en masse.
Meanwhile, I quietly opened a short position. A few hours later, the 'god' fell silent, and my account grew by 1,200,000. This money is still sitting in a cold wallet, like a thorn—because I understand that behind this lies the sweat and tears of countless blind followers.
If you have ever followed major influencers into unfamiliar projects and held onto positions, the following three 'contrarian logic' points might help you survive longer in this market.
1. Learn to 'delay action,' let the bullet fly for a while
Many major influencers' 'real-time calls' are actually scripted: they have already built positions, and calling others to follow is just to lift their own positions, making it easier for them to exit quietly. My rough method is: set a 'buffer period', and do not immediately follow up with actions.
If the trend remains stable after 15-30 minutes, it indicates there may be real consensus support; if there is a sharp rise and fall, it is likely a trap. This single habit has helped me avoid 80% of the 'pump and dump' pitfalls.
In the cryptocurrency market where high leverage and high expectations coexist, price fluctuations can be amplified. When you see an opportunity, ask yourself: Is this a real trend, or just an illusion stirred by emotions?
2. Build your 'reverse indicator observation list'
Instead of chasing those 'always victorious generals,' it's better to pay attention to KOLs who have made consecutive misjudgments. They often become leading indicators of market reversals. But a key point: always set a stop-loss line! Otherwise, an extreme market situation may cause harm to both the 'contrarian indicators' and those who blindly follow them.
I have a few typical examples on my own observation list; every time they publicly express 'I can’t hold on, I have to cut losses,' it is often a moment when market sentiment is overly pessimistic, which could be a signal for a light reverse position.
The cryptocurrency market has a natural fragility under high leverage. When most people are running in one direction, it is actually the most dangerous time.
3. Don't blindly trust win rates; focus on the 'profit and loss ratio'
I have tracked my reverse trading data over a period of time: the win rate is only about 50%; real profit comes from losing less when losing and making more when winning.
In most cases, both sides, long and short, are actually saying 'I don’t understand' to each other, ultimately suffering together. In this market, many people do not lose due to misjudging direction, but rather due to poor position management and a greedy mindset.
As pointed out by the Behavioral Finance Research Institute, we are often insensitive to probabilities and easily driven by strong emotions. This means that when emotions run high, people may pay far above the true value.
I have seen young people borrow money to follow trades, ultimately losing everything; I have also seen families fall apart due to blindly going all-in. Later, I understood: the top players in the cryptocurrency market do not just harvest others; they know when to pull themselves away from the gambling table.
Now I no longer simply rely on 'reverse trading,' but focus more on my own in-depth research and trend judgment. Because making money off others' mistakes will ultimately backfire with bigger mistakes.
For novice friends, surviving in this market is a hundred times more important than making quick profits. Market rules are always changing, but human nature never changes. If we can maintain independent thinking and avoid emotional investing, we might find our footing in this highly volatile market.
As the father of contrarian investing, David Dreman, said: 'The stock market usually shows price deviations from intrinsic value driven by investor sentiment.' The cryptocurrency market amplifies this characteristic to the extreme.
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