In the cruel world of cryptocurrencies,
When most people's 'wealth code' became a beacon,
my reverse trading strategy harvested quietly
At the end of 2022, the market was engulfed in panic, and the price of Ethereum continued to decline. At this time, a prominent figure known by fans as the 'Contract War God' passionately shouted to go long at the $8900 position, sharing screenshots of heavy positions, claiming this was a 'once in a decade entry point.'
I stared at the screen and calmly set a short position instead. This was not impulsive, but a calculated calm hunt.
A few days later, with the outbreak of the FTX incident, Ethereum plummeted. I exited around $1200, my account balance skyrocketed, but my heart was exceptionally calm. Because this was not the first time — I had already figured out a cold yet effective 'reverse trading' strategy.
1. How I discovered the 'reverse trading' knife.
Initially, I, like most retail traders, blindly followed the calls of various 'gods'. The result can be imagined; in this zero-sum game of contracts, I became the one being harvested.
The turning point came from an accidental record. In March 2021, I compiled the public trading records of a well-known analyst and was surprised to find that his accuracy rate was less than 40%, especially at market turning points, where his error rate was extremely high. Yet this 'teacher', who is somewhat famous in the industry, has hundreds of thousands of followers, with many followers opening positions based on his instructions every day.
Thus, I came up with a bold idea: what if I operate in the opposite direction?
I established a 'contrarian indicator observation list', with extremely strict criteria:
Three consecutive critical judgment errors (especially clear calls with leverage).
Fan interactions are fervent but logically hollow (comments often just say 'followed' or 'believe in the teacher').
The position screenshot has obvious 'guiding traces' compared to the market.
2. The real face of reverse trading: it seems like picking up money, but in reality, it's walking on a tightrope.
I must be honest with you: the win rate of reverse trading is not as high as one might think. I have statistics showing that in the extreme volatility of the fourth quarter of 2022, my contrarian strategy had a win rate of only 47%. So why was I still profitable? The key lies in the risk-reward ratio. A successful contrarian trade can often cover multiple small losses.
But the scariest part of this game is the 'double kill trap'. You think the prominent figure is wrong, but he is wrong in an outrageous way, and the market rushes in an even more unfavorable direction for him—until all his stop-loss orders are triggered, and the market instantly reverses, burying you as well.
Therefore, even with contrarian trades, strict stop-losses must be set! My principle is: the stop-loss amount is always less than one-third of the expected profit space.
Be more alert to 'survivor bias'. You only see the examples where I successfully made money from contrarian trading, but you don't see the more frequent situations where both bulls and bears are wiped out in severe fluctuations. Last year, a student who followed trades silently left the group after a prominent figure was liquidated, disappearing without a trace. Part of my profits essentially came from such tragedies.
3. The secret to identifying high-quality 'contrarian indicators'.
Not every trader is suitable as a contrarian indicator. After years of practice, I have summarized three iron rules:
1. Observe whether there are potential collaborations with the platform.
Some 'teachers' have commission cooperation with exchanges; they bring trades to increase trading volume and earn commission splits. Their suggestions often come with extremely high trading frequencies and usually show signs of 'receiving commissions'. The identification method is simple: directly ask the exchange's customer service if they can provide a KOL cooperation plan.
2. Beware of the myth of 'always being right'.
No one in the market can be right forever. Analysts who never publicly admit mistakes and always find excuses for failures are often high-quality contrarian indicators. Their misjudgments are usually more resolute and extreme, thus creating better entry points for contrarian trades.
3. Pay attention to moments when extreme emotions are publicized.
When a prominent figure on social media confidently posts statements like 'certain win' or 'doubling', especially showing large position screenshots, it often signals a short-term market reversal. The publicization of extreme emotions is a great contrarian signal.
4. My core mindset: from 'hunter' to 'observer'.
Now, I rarely simply execute 'reverse trading'. It is more like a market sentiment thermometer. My approach is:
Delayed confirmation: give the market 15-30 minutes to digest emotions, without rushing to execute reverse trades immediately.
Cross-validation: when multiple 'contrarian indicators' make consistent mistakes, the signal is stronger.
Focus shift: not fixating on gambling, but studying how the market reacts after they 'make mistakes'.
At one point, I was obsessed with this 'against the crowd' thrill, even organizing detailed Excel sheets to track the accuracy rates of various 'beacons'. But after earning that 1.2 million, I suffered from insomnia for a week.
This money is backed by the blood and tears of countless blind followers. In this zero-sum game, my profits inevitably mean losses for another group of people. Now, this portion of profit still resides in my cold wallet; it serves as a mirror reflecting the cruel reality of this market.
There are no gods in the cryptocurrency circle, only people who constantly evolve. Blindly following (whether forward or reverse) is essentially surrendering the right to think. True wisdom is not about how accurate your predictions are, but knowing when to enter the market and when to leave the table completely.
Perhaps one day, when reverse trading becomes a mainstream strategy, I will choose to quietly exit. But until then, I will continue my silent hunting—calm, restrained, without a trace of fervor.
Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points in the cryptocurrency circle, becoming your guide in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
