The growth history of Bitcoin shows remarkable patterns, and analysts often use them for future trend predictions. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, announced a new analysis based on the wave development model of Bitcoin.
Experts are optimistic about next year, but they still present cautious forecasts.
How strong is Bitcoin's 6th growth wave?
In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer emphasized that the wave development model of Bitcoin has the feature of decreasing scale but lasting longer for each growth cycle.
Timmer suggested using historical data since 2010, indicating that Bitcoin is currently entering the fifth wave. This cycle started from the 2022 low of $16,603 and mentioned that it could reach an estimated peak of around $151,360.
“It is difficult to determine in real-time whether a new bear market has arrived. However, the changes in the wave structure appearing in the development curve of the Bitcoin network indicate that the most recent bull market (starting from around $16,000 in 2022) appears to be quite mature.” – Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Global Macro Director
In the short term, he is optimistic about Bitcoin's year-end performance. Investor sentiment has improved due to the Fed's monetary easing policy.
In the long term, the possibility of a sixth growth wave was suggested. This model utilizes linear estimation based on data collected from the previous five waves.
According to this model, the downward slope chart of Bitcoin (in pink) is as follows.
4th wave: Bitcoin grew 20 times over 153 weeks from its low to its high.
5th wave (ongoing): Bitcoin could grow 9 times over 160 weeks.
6th wave (expected): Bitcoin could grow about 5 times over 168 weeks.
However, this model does not clearly indicate the exact low point from which the 6th wave will start. Timmer mentioned the possibility of a support level forming around the floor of this cycle at approximately $80,554.
According to this outlook, Bitcoin has not yet completed the fifth wave, so early 2026 is expected to start relatively positively.
Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder of Axis, also shared a similar outlook with BeInCrypto. He expected the effects of the Fed's interest rate cuts to become apparent soon.
“We expect stabilization and a sideways period rather than an immediate V-shaped rebound. The market needs time to digest the recent volatility. However, by the first quarter of 2026, interest rate cuts will eventually be reflected in global liquidity and institutional portfolio restructuring, so the medium-term outlook remains positive.” – Jimmy Xue, COO of Axis, in an interview with BeInCrypto
However, some observers indicate that there are more pessimistic scenarios. 2026 is a year with U.S. midterm elections. Historical performance shows that Bitcoin tends to experience a decline of 60% to 75% during this period.
These contrasting analyses suggest that 2026 will be an adventurous year for investors. In particular, institutional investors have steadily added BTC over the past two years since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF.
