The current daily level convergence triangle, with the gradual decline of the high points and the slow rise of the low points, clearly reflects the repeated game of long and short forces in a narrow space. Each failed attempt to test 94500 upwards consumes the short-term momentum of the bulls, but the buying support below also demonstrates resilience. This structure usually does not continue endlessly; the final breakout requires external catalysts or internal volume mutations to break the balance.
From a macro liquidity perspective, although the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, actual interest rates remain high, and the cost of funds is not cheap. From the sentiment perspective, the market, after experiencing a rapid rise in the previous round, needs time to digest profit-taking, and the willingness of new funds to enter the market appears hesitant at the current position. Therefore, in the absence of unexpected positive boosts, the trend is more likely to choose the path of least resistance, which is to continue the converging oscillation, exchanging time for space, rather than forcing a breakout upwards.
At the end of the converging pattern, price fluctuations may further narrow, making trend-based strategies prone to repeated losses. A more pragmatic approach is to:
Reduce leverage to avoid being washed out in narrow fluctuations.
Adopt a range-based mindset, looking for stabilization signals to take small long positions at the lower triangle edge of 90500-91500, and reduce positions or try shorting when resistance signals appear at the upper edge of 94000-94500, with strict stop-loss settings.
Keep ample ammunition, waiting for the market to finally choose a direction before considering following the trend.
The current daily triangle convergence is a process of momentum accumulation and the long and short parties seeking a consensus again. In the absence of strong external forces, continuing to oscillate is indeed a higher probability path. In trading, it is not advisable to bet too early on a unilateral breakout; instead, one should respond with the mindset of 'range oscillation, waiting for a breakout,' maintaining patience until the market provides a clear directional signal by itself.
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