Bitcoin appears to be forming a 'double bottom' around $92,000, and technical indicators are also starting to show a bullish divergence. However, before the 'gray rhino' of the central bank's decision on December 19 comes crashing in, every rise in the market could be a carefully designed liquidity grab.
1. Current Situation: The Calm and Temptation Before the Storm
As of December 12, 2025, the BTC price hovers around $92,445. The daily KD golden cross and RSI rising seem to hint that a rebound is imminent.
But this is precisely the most dangerous moment in the market - the 'macroeconomic vacuum period'.
The main funds (Smart Money) are well aware that retail investors have become frightened after experiencing previous pullbacks. At this time, the main force's favorite move is to take advantage of these few days of window, creating a 'false warm-up', slowly pushing the price up to the $95,500 - $96,000 range, giving the market the illusion of 'bad news fully priced in', inducing FOMO sentiment, but in reality, it is to accumulate the opposing positions needed for subsequent dumping.
2. Script simulation: the main force's 'hunting' logic.
If we switch to the perspective of the market makers, facing the uncertainty of the 19th, the most reasonable trading script is not unilateral rise, but **'collecting liquidity'**:
Pushing up to stop losses (inducing long): First, raise the price to touch the moving average pressure zone (around 98,000), stimulating chasing sentiment, and harvesting a wave of short fuel.
Digging a big pit downwards (killing longs): In conjunction with the news on the 19th (regardless of whether interest rates rise or not), using instant liquidity withdrawal, pushing down to trigger a spike.
Hunting target: A large number of previous low-level long stop-loss orders are clustered around $84,800 below.
Intent: Only by breaking through here and playing the bloody chips can the main force complete the low-cost chip exchange (Swap).
3. The macro maximum variable: 12·19 Bank of Japan decision.
This is not only a war of the yen but also a valve of global liquidity.
If Japan raises interest rates: it is also a high probability event. Yen carry trade liquidation will lead to a short-term sell-off of global risk assets. Bitcoin is highly likely to experience a **'knee-jerk reflex crash'**, instantly breaking through the 90,000 mark and heading straight for 85,000. But remember, this is also the beginning of the collapse of the US dollar index (DXY), a pit in the short term, and a bottom in the long term.
If remaining motionless: the market will rebound with vengeance, and shorts will be instantly squeezed (Short Squeeze), with the price shooting up to 100,000.
4. Strategy Recommendation: Be a patient sniper.
At this position, 'holding cash' itself is a form of holding a position. Do not try to catch the fish head (small profits from rebounds); we want to catch the fish body with the highest certainty.
Left-side ambush (order hanging strategy): Do not go all-in at this position. It is recommended to distribute funds in batches within the $85,000 - $88,000 range. This is the lifeline of the bull market trend and also a high probability area for the main force to inject liquidity.
Right-side confirmation: If you are a conservative trader, please hold your hands. Only when the price effectively stands firm at the $98,000 strong resistance level, or shows a daily-level 'golden needle bottoming' recovery above $90,000, is it time to enter on the right side.
[Conclusion]
What the dogs fear most is not smart opponents, but 'fools' who do not play by the rules. Before December 19, maintain low leverage or a cash position, waiting to receive goods in the ruins of others' panic stop-losses (85,000), which may be the last excellent opportunity to board this bull market.
