#CryptoMarketMoves
🔥 Markets give 35% probability of NEW US government shutdown in 2026!
Polymarket: 35% that a new shutdown will start on January 31, 2026
Kalshi: almost the same — 37%
This is just a few months after the longest ever 43-day shutdown in 2025, which cost the US economy ~$15 billion per week and cut GDP growth by 1–1.5%.
Then the predictions of traders on Kalshi guessed the duration almost perfectly — 41.6 days against the actual 43.
Why the markets are nervous again:
• Budget wars for fiscal year 2026 not resolved
• Affordable Care Act subsidies are ending
• Political deadlock is not going anywhere
If they don’t agree again — mass furloughs, suspension of SNAP payments (42 million Americans without food assistance), frozen SEC (hello, 92 crypto-ETPs hanging in limbo), zero statistics from BLS/BEA/Census and another blow to the economy.
It seems that no one learned the lessons from 2025. Prepare popcorn (and, perhaps, stablecoins) 🍿
