The price of HBAR today is stable after a strong monthly decline of nearly 29%. However, it remains down about 6% in the last week. The trend appears weak, but in reality, the situation is more complex. Retail demand is weak, but whales have significantly accumulated in the last two days.
This combination of weakness and accumulation suggests that a base is forming, even though the price movement still appears weak.
Weak demand meets strong accumulation?
HBAR is still moving within a descending wedge. A wedge is usually a bullish structure because it signals that sellers are losing strength over time. However, within this formation, a signal of greater weakness has also emerged. Between December 7 and December 11, the price of HBAR recorded a higher low while the OBV (On-Balance Volume) recorded a lower low.
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The OBV is a cumulative tool that monitors whether money is coming in or out of a token. When the price records a higher low but the OBV falls, it means that buyers do not have enough strength to sustain a bounce. This creates a bearish divergence even within a theoretically bullish scenario.
Whales, however, are behaving very differently. Accounts with at least 10 million HBAR have increased from 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts with at least 100 million HBAR have risen from 40.65 to 73.62. Considering only the minimum thresholds, whales have accumulated about 3.42 billion HBAR in less than 48 hours. At current prices, this amount is worth at least 445 million dollars.
The OBV tracks the volume traded on exchanges; any large transfers out of exchanges or OTC/custody operations may not appear in the OBV, which therefore represents retail interest better than that of whales.
This contradiction sets the stage for the next section because whales are likely reacting to a deeper signal.
A recurring signal that whales might be observing
Between October 17 and December 11, the price recorded a lower low while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) recorded a higher low. The RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When the price falls but the RSI rises, a standard bullish divergence forms. This type of divergence is associated with trend reversals.
This same divergence also appeared before other bounces. On December 1 and December 7, the same pattern reappeared, and HBAR rose by 15% and 12% from the lows. Each time the movement stopped at resistance, but this time the divergence appears alongside strong whale accumulation. This combination makes the current reversal attempt more significant than those prior within the wedge.
If the levels that stopped previous bounces are surpassed, the divergence could change the overall structure from bearish to bullish, and it is likely on this scenario that the whales are focusing.
The most critical price levels of HBAR
The price of HBAR needs a daily close above $0.159. This level has never been surpassed during previous bounces. A breakout above this threshold would also break the upper trendline of the wedge and open up space for a move towards $0.198 and $0.219.
If the price were to weaken again, $0.122 becomes the level to watch. A drop below this mark would send HBAR back to the bottom of the wedge. However, this level is fragile because it has only been tested twice. A break below would delay any recovery and signal that sellers still control the overall trend.
Currently, the OBV shows weak demand, the RSI indicates a bullish setup, and whales have accumulated about 3.42 billion HBAR at the lows. If HBAR manages to surpass $0.159, whale accumulation would become an important push instead of just a background signal.
