The HBAR price is flat today following a sharp monthly decline of nearly 29%. Over the past week, HBAR is still about 6% lower. The trend looks weak, but the underlying picture is more complicated. Retail demand is weak, but whales have been buying significantly over the past two days.
This mix of weakness and accumulation indicates that a bottom may be forming, even though the price action still looks weak.
Weak demand versus strong accumulation?
HBAR is still moving in a falling wedge. Such a wedge is usually a bullish structure as it shows that sellers are losing their strength. However, a weaker signal appeared in that wedge. Between December 7 and December 11, the HBAR price made a higher low while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) formed a lower low.
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OBV is a cumulative volume indicator that looks at whether money is flowing into or out of a token. If the price makes a higher low but OBV declines, buyers do not have enough strength to support the recovery. This creates a bearish divergence within a bullish pattern.
Whales, however, behave very differently. Accounts with at least 10 million HBAR grew from 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts with at least 100 million HBAR increased from 40.65 to 73.62. Just with these minimum numbers, whales have added approximately 3.42 billion HBAR in less than 48 hours. At the current price, this amount is worth at least $445 million.
OBV only shows the trading volume on exchanges. Large off-exchange transactions or OTC/custody activities are not included. Therefore, OBV sometimes misses whale activity and is primarily a good representation of retail interest.
This contrast leads to the next part of the story, as whales are likely reacting to a deeper signal.
A repeated signal that whales may be following
Between October 17 and December 11, the price made a lower low while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) showed a higher low. RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. If the price drops but RSI rises, a classic bullish divergence occurs. This divergence is often linked to trend reversals.
This same pattern was also present in previous rallies. On December 1 and December 7, it appeared, after which HBAR rose by 15% and 12% respectively from the lows. Each movement stopped at resistance, but now you see the divergence along with significant whale accumulation. That combination makes the current reversal more relevant than previous attempts within the wedge.
If the barriers that previously held back rallies break now, the divergence can tilt the broader structure from bearish to bullish. Whales are likely positioning themselves for this.
The key HBAR price levels
The HBAR price needs a daily close above $0.159. This level was not reached in previous rallies. A breakout above this boundary also breaks the upper trend line of the wedge and provides room for an increase towards $0.198 and $0.219.
If the price becomes weak again, $0.122 is the key level to watch. A drop below this pushes HBAR back to the bottom of the wedge. That boundary is weak, as it has only held twice. A breakdown downward would cause further delays in recovery and show that sellers still have the upper hand.
At the moment, OBV shows weak demand, RSI has a bullish setup, and whales have bought approximately 3.42 billion HBAR at the lows. If HBAR manages to break above $0.159, this whale accumulation will provide real support instead of just a background signal.
