Bitcoin (BTC)
Price: $92,249
Max Pain: $90,000
OI: 39,826 contracts
Put/Call Ratio: 1.10
Notional: ~$3.7B
Deribit says the balanced distribution signals expectations of a stable expiry as BTC continues sideways.
Ethereum (ETH)
Price: $3,242
Max Pain: $3,100
OI: 237,879 contracts
Put/Call Ratio: 1.22
Notional: ~$770M
Call interest above $3,400 shows traders still expect possible upside swings even as volatility stays muted.
Macro backdrop
The Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and $40B Treasury buybacks offer mild liquidity support. But year-end is historically the weakest period for crypto liquidity.
Key notes from Greeks.live:
Over half of all options OI sits on Dec 26
Implied volatility keeps falling
Puts remain expensive → strong downside hedging
This environment favors covered-call strategies, implying expectations of consolidation.
Short-term risks
ETF outflows
MicroStrategy losing cost-basis advantage
Rising miner selling
FalconX notes a structural shift is needed for strong momentum to return. Still, long-term fundamentals remain intact, and an orderly expiry is likely unless a major catalyst appears.
What’s next?
Traders are watching:
macro liquidity
derivatives flows
spot market stability
year-end volatility patterns
Some short-term swings may appear through the weekend, but stabilization is expected as post-expiry positioning clears.
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