In the past few days, an article (The plummet of FIL is an inevitable result of economic model defects) has gone viral in the crypto community, describing Filecoin as an 'inflation black hole', 'technology disillusionment', and 'miner death spiral'. #热门话题
But the truth is far more complex than emotional criticism.$FIL
I am currently unpacking this controversy from three levels:
1. The real issue does exist
1. The pressure of inflation is real
A circulation of over 700 million, with an annual release of about 15%,
In addition, miners need to continuously replenish their stakes, which indeed brings selling pressure in the secondary market.
2. The real storage demand has yet to explode
Currently, out of 23EiB of data on the entire network, about 95% is 'invalid storage',
Indicates that Filecoin's business model is still in transition.
3. Miners face significant cash flow pressure
Price drop → Collateral shrink → Forced sale → Price drop again,
This 'self-reinforcing negative feedback' has indeed amplified panic in the short term.
2. Errors and biases in the article
Exaggerating the collapse and the 'death spiral'
The main network operates stably, and the FVM ecosystem is still expanding,
There has been no technical or protocol-level risk. This is not 'death,' but a calm period of the economic cycle.
Misunderstanding Filecoin's positioning, Filecoin is not here to 'replace AWS',
Instead, it is about building a decentralized storage trust layer for Web3. What it provides is verifiable storage, traceable ledgers, and anti-censorship mechanisms, not competition in speed and price.
'Invalid storage' issues are exaggerated; early miners did fill with zero data, but with the promotion of the FIL+ mechanism, the proportion of real customer storage is increasing. This is a temporary issue, not a model defect.
Incorrectly comparing Arweave and Storj
Arweave provides permanent storage, and Storj focuses on lightweight distribution,
While Filecoin primarily targets verifiable and computable layers
They are not competitors but collaborators in the division of labor for Web3 infrastructure.
3. The three future variables: determining whether FIL can be revalued
FVM virtual machine ecosystem landing
Supporting smart contracts and data computation will allow Filecoin to transition from 'storage' to 'computation + AI'.
AI storage and DePIN's new narrative
The demand for AI model training and encrypted data storage is surging,
If Filecoin can penetrate the AI data distribution layer, it will welcome a second curve.
Inflation and staking mechanism adjustments
Protocol Labs is studying re-staking and burning mechanisms,
If the annual release rate can be reduced, it will relieve long-term pressure on the price.
Understand the structure before investing, do not blindly follow emotions; see the cycles, understand the logic, and then talk about value. The market relies on emotions in the short term and on structure in the long term.#美联储降息 #山寨币热点
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