After a pullback to $80,000, the price of the first cryptocurrency got stuck in an ascending channel, which threatens to turn into a 'bear flag.' A trader under the nickname Roman predicted a drop in quotes to $76,000.
«Time to drop to $76,000. Bearish divergences and overall dynamics confirm the forecast,» he wrote, attaching a chart with price, volumes, RSI, and MACD to the post.
According to the expert, positive macroeconomic factors (including the Fed's rate cut) and the stock market no longer influence digital assets.
'Bitcoin has already risen by 750% from the low of $15,600 in 2022. The bullish rally is over. One should prepare for the next one, after which the price will drop to $50,000,' he added.
Investor Ted Pillows also pointed to the formation of a 'bear flag,' drawing parallels with the correction in 2022.
'The similarity between the current cycle and the previous one is truly shocking. If the scenario repeats, we can expect a rise to $100,000, followed by a drop below $70,000,' he wrote.
Options traders are also betting on the decline of digital gold. According to Glassnode, activity has shifted towards puts even after the Fed meeting.
'The market is stabilizing, but the foundation remains fragile. The price movement is constructive, yet liquidity is low, and flows into ETFs are split — a sure sign of a market that is seeking direction rather than following it,' noted BRN's research head Timothy Misir in a comment to CoinDesk.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $92,500. In the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has increased by 3%.
Historical divergence on Binance
However, there are also positive signals — long-term holders believe that the bullish trend will continue.
CryptoQuant contributor under the nickname CryptoOnchain pointed out a rare divergence on Binance. The withdrawal volume reached record levels, while the replenishment indicator hit a minimum in recent years.
The 30-day moving average of deposits on Binance has fallen to its lowest level since 2017 — about 320 transactions per day.
'This signals a massive shift towards self-custody, despite Bitcoin trading near record highs,' commented the expert.
According to him, as long as the first cryptocurrency remains in the current range, market participants are not interested in selling.
The current situation creates a classic 'supply shock' scenario, noted CryptoOnchain.
'When Bitcoin reaches peaks, an influx of coins to exchanges is expected: long-term investors take profits. Now everything is different: liquidity is leaving trading platforms, and new sales volumes are not being formed. This anomaly demonstrates unprecedented confidence among investors in the continuation of the bullish trend,' he summarized.
Let us remind you that analysts have excluded the 'Santa Claus rally' for the first cryptocurrency. According to them, the cautious position of the Fed will delay the update of historical highs at least until spring.
