The claim that Wall Street trading firm Jane Street triggers Bitcoin 'dumps' every day at 10 AM was highlighted again on December 12. Bitcoin experienced a sudden intraday drop that day.
On social media, attention has once again turned to institutional traders and ETF market makers. However, a closer examination of the data reveals a more complex scenario.
'What is the 'Jane Street 10 AM' narrative?
According to this theory, Bitcoin is primarily sold around 9:30 to 10:00 AM (Eastern Time) when the U.S. stock market opens. Jane Street is often mentioned because it is a major market maker and an official participant in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.
This claim suggests that these companies intentionally lower prices to induce forced liquidations, after which they buy back at a lower price. However, no regulatory agency, exchange, or data source has officially confirmed such organized behavior.
Bitcoin futures show no signals of large-scale dumping
Bitcoin maintained a narrow range near 92,000 to 93,000 dollars during the early part of the opening hours of the U.S. market. At 10:00 AM sharp, there were no sudden or abnormal sell-offs.
The sharp drop actually occurred later in the session, closer to noon U.S. time. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below 90,000 dollars before stabilizing, suggesting that the selling pressure was more delayed rather than related to opening.
The open interest for Bitcoin futures on major exchanges showed an overall stable appearance. The total open interest did not exhibit significant fluctuations that day, and no large increases in new short positions were observed.
Even at CME, which is most closely related to institutional trading, open interest has slightly decreased. This pattern is generally interpreted as a reduction in risk, hedging, or non-directional selling.
If a large firm organized a dump, signals of a sharp rise or fall in open interest should have emerged. Such phenomena were not observed.
Liquidation, movement explained
Liquidation data provides a clearer interpretation. In the last 24 hours, the total liquidation size of the entire cryptocurrency market exceeded 430 million dollars, with most of it being long positions.
There were liquidations exceeding 68 million dollars just for Bitcoin, and the liquidation size for Ethereum was even larger. This indicates that it is not just an event for Bitcoin alone, but a broader market phenomenon of leverage adjustment.
When the price falls below key support levels, forced liquidations can quickly amplify the decline. In such situations, sharp drops can occur even without a specific large seller.
Notably, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 77 million dollars on December 11. This is the first occurrence after two days of net inflow, and the brief price shock of that day was significantly reflected in this movement.
This movement appeared dispersed across various exchanges such as Binance, CME, OKX, and Bybit. No concentrated selling pressure was confirmed on a specific exchange or product.
This point is significant in that organized market manipulation usually leaves traces. In this case, it shows that a widespread and automated risk relief process occurred simultaneously across the market.
Reason for repeating the Jane Street story
Bitcoin volatility often shows a phenomenon concentrated around U.S. market hours, ETF trading, macroeconomic indicator announcements, and institutional portfolio adjustments. These structural factors can make price movements appear to follow certain patterns.
Jane Street is becoming a target of speculation due to its prominent presence as an ETF market maker. However, the role of market makers is related to hedging and inventory management, unrelated to directional price attacks.
Today's movements also represent a pattern commonly seen in the cryptocurrency market. As leverage builds up and prices fall, a chain of liquidations follows, leading to various subsequent interpretations.
