Bitcoin is approaching the end of 2025 in a difficult market position. The asset's quotes have settled around $93,000 after several weeks of selling pressure. Four key charts indicate that the market is in the late stage of correction. However, a clear trigger for the beginning of growth is still absent.
The data highlights three main factors at play. Recent buyers are experiencing losses, and new large investors are capitulating. Macroeconomic conditions continue to dictate price dynamics, although buyer activity in the spot market is gradually recovering.
Losses of short-term holders of the asset
The first chart tracks realized profits and losses of short-term holders (STH). This group includes coins acquired in recent months. Earlier in 2025, these participants had unrealized profits of 15-20%.
Such a situation stimulated profit-taking and created selling pressure at the highs. Today, the picture has radically changed. Bitcoin is trading below the STH realization price. The cohort shows losses of around -10%.
The histogram on the chart is colored red, marking one of the deepest drawdown periods in 2025. This has two important consequences for the market.
In the short term, holders may sell the asset on any price bounce. Many aim to break even, which limits the rally potential to entry zones. However, deep loss zones typically emerge in the later stages of a correction. This signals that weak hands have already suffered significant damage.
At a certain point, the selling power of this group is exhausted. Historically, the reversal signal occurs when the price returns above the STH realization level. This step confirms that forced selling is complete. Until that moment, the chart requires caution and suggests trading within a range.
At a certain point, the selling power of this group is exhausted. Historically, the reversal signal occurs when the price returns above the STH realization level. This step confirms that forced selling is complete. Until that moment, the chart requires caution and suggests trading within a range.
The capitulation of new large investors
The second indicator shows realized profits and losses by ‘whale’ cohorts. It separates flows between new and old large holders. New whales are large addresses that have started accumulating recently.
Yesterday, new whales recorded a loss of $386 million in one day. The column on the chart represents a significant negative spike. Similar values cluster around recent lows.
Old market participants show a different dynamic. Their metrics are more balanced, and they do not exit positions as quickly. This pattern is typical for the concluding stages of a correction. New players often buy late, sometimes using leverage or under the influence of news.
When the price moves against them, they are the first to leave the market. Such capitulation has a structural advantage. Coins shift from weak hands to more resilient investors. Selling pressure from this group decreases after such events.
In the short term, an asset dump can pull the price down. However, in the medium term, it enhances the quality of Bitcoin holders' base. The market becomes more resilient when panicking large sellers complete their exits.
The impact of real interest rates
The third chart overlays the price of Bitcoin on the inverted yield of two-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Real yield measures interest rates minus inflation. This metric moves almost in sync with BTC throughout 2025.
When real rates fall, the inverted line rises. Bitcoin tends to rise along with it as liquidity improves. Low rates make risky assets more attractive compared to safe bonds.
Since the end of summer, real yields have risen again. The inverted line has headed down, and cryptocurrency has followed it. This proves that macroeconomic conditions still dominate the global trend.
A reduction in the nominal Fed rate alone may not fix the situation. What matters is how the market assesses the future real cost of borrowing. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real yields could even rise.
For sustainable Bitcoin growth, softer real conditions are necessary. As long as debt markets do not account for this shift, the asset will face macroeconomic headwinds.
The fourth chart tracks the 90-day cumulative volume delta (CVD) of takers on major exchanges. The indicator shows the net volume of market orders that are executed against resting orders. It determines who is dominant: aggressive buyers or sellers.
During the weeks of the market downturn, sellers dominated (Taker Sell Dominant mode). Red bars filled the chart as traders actively hit bids on spot markets. This coincided with a slow price slide downward.
Now the signal has changed. The metric has moved into the buyers' dominance zone, and green bars have appeared. Aggressive buyers now outnumber sellers on spot venues.
This is an early but important change. Trend reversals often begin with such shifts in market microstructure. First, the initial buyers arrive, then the price stabilizes, and only afterward do larger flows follow.
One day of data is never enough. However, a sustained green mode will confirm real demand. This will show that the market is absorbing supply from short-term holders and capitulating whales.
Price movement outlook
Together, these four charts indicate a late-stage correction rather than the beginning of a new bull market. Short-term holders and new whales are bearing heavy losses and continue to sell on local bounces. Real rates still restrain risk appetite globally.
At the same time, fundamental prerequisites for recovery are forming. Capitulation cleanses the market of weak hands. Furthermore, the return of spot buyers reduces the speed of price declines.
Before Christmas 2025, Bitcoin appears to be squeezed in a range with a bearish tilt around $90,000. Drops to the middle or top of the $80,000 range remain possible if real yields stay high.
For a clear bullish shift, the simultaneous appearance of three signals is necessary. First, the price must establish above the realization level of short-term holders. Second, the real yield on two-year bonds must decrease, easing financial conditions.
Thirdly, the dominance of buyers in the spot market must become sustainable. Until that moment, traders will face a volatile market dependent on macro data. Long-term investors may view the current situation as a planning zone rather than a time for aggressive bets.
