Analysts are noting the concluding stage of the fifth wave of growth for the first cryptocurrency. Market participants expect the influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on long-term trends in digital assets.
The history of Bitcoin quotes demonstrates stable patterns. They are often used to predict future trends. Fidelity's Director of Global Macro Economics, Jurrien Timmer, published a new analysis. It is based on a model of the wave development of the main digital asset. Experts remain optimistic about the next year. However, their forecasts contain a degree of caution.
Characteristics of the current cycle
Jurrien Timmer highlighted a key feature of the market in his report. Each new phase of growth expands over time but loses amplitude. Returns become less explosive but more predictable.
The analyst used historical data from 2010. According to calculations, Bitcoin is currently in the fifth wave. This cycle started at the lows of 2022 at $16,603. The projection indicates a possible peak around $151,360.
"It is difficult to determine the beginning of a new crypto winter in real-time. However, the evolution of the wave structure shows a high maturity of the current bull market," noted Jurrien Timmer.
The short-term expectations of the expert remain positive. The end of the year demonstrates the strength of the asset. Investor sentiment has improved due to the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Modeling the sixth wave
Long-term analysis suggests the formation of a sixth wave of growth. The model uses linear projections based on data from the previous five cycles. The downward slope of the yield graph allows for the assessment of volatility decay.
The dynamics of the cycles look as follows:
Wave 4: Bitcoin has increased 20 times over 153 weeks (from trough to peak).
Wave 5 (current): A growth of 9 times is forecasted over 160 weeks.
Wave 6 (future): A growth of approximately 5 times is expected over 168 weeks.
The model does not determine the exact bottom point for the start of the sixth cycle. Timmer suggests a support level around $80,554. This corresponds to the 'floor' of the current market stage. Such calculations promise a relatively positive start to 2026. The fifth wave is not yet definitively complete.
Macroeconomic factors and risks
The Chief Operating Officer of Axis, Jimmy Tsai, shares this view. In a comment for BeInCrypto, he pointed out the importance of regulatory actions. The effect of the Fed's rate cuts will manifest soon.
"We lean towards a stabilization period rather than an immediate V-shaped rebound. The market needs time to absorb recent volatility. The medium-term picture for the first quarter of 2026 remains bullish. Rate cuts will direct liquidity to global assets," said Jimmy Tsai.
There is also an alternative scenario. The intermediate elections in the USA fall in 2026. Historical statistics during such periods are often negative for risky assets. Previously, Bitcoin demonstrated declines of 60% to 75% under similar political conditions.
These diverging factors promise investors a rich year. Nevertheless, institutional players continue to increase their positions. Approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin has created a foundation for long-term holding of coins by large capital.
