Bitcoin is approaching Christmas 2025 in a fragile but interesting position. The price is trading around 90,000 dollars after weeks of pressure. Four key charts show a market in the final stage of its correction but still lacking a clear bullish signal.
The data highlights three major forces at play. Recent buyers are at significant losses, while new whales are capitulating. Macro conditions still dominate the price, even as spot buying strength quietly returns.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are suffering a lot
The first chart shows the realized gains and losses of short-term holders (STH). This group includes coins bought in the last few months. Their 'realized price' is the average cost of these tokens.
At the beginning of 2025, the STH had strong gains. Their average position was 15–20% in profit while Bitcoin was rising. That phase encouraged profit-taking and added selling pressure near the highs.
Today, the situation changed. Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of the STH, and the group shows around -10% in losses. The histogram on the chart is red, marking one of the deepest loss regimes of 2025.
This has two consequences. In the short term, these 'underwater' holders may sell on every bounce. Many just want to exit at breakeven, which limits rallies to the area where they bought.
However, wallets with deep and persistent losses tend to appear at the end of corrections. They indicate that weak hands have already suffered significant damage. At some point, the selling power of this group is low.
Historically, the key change signal comes when the price recovers the realized price of the STH from below. That movement indicates that forced selling is nearly over and that new demand is absorbing the supply.
Until that happens, the chart suggests proceeding with caution and that the price remains within range near current levels.
New Bitcoin whales are retreating
The second chart shows the realized gains and losses by whale cohorts. It divides flows between 'new whales' and 'old whales.' New whales are large holders who have recently accumulated.
Yesterday, new whales realized $386 million in losses in a single day. Their bar on the chart is a significant negative drop. Other large negative bars also appear near recent lows.
Old whales show a different story. Their realized gains and losses are smaller and more balanced. They are not exiting at the same pace as new participants.
This pattern is common in late stages of a correction. New whales tend to buy late, sometimes with leverage or being swayed by a strong narrative. When the price moves against them, they are the first to capitulate.
That capitulation has a structural benefit. Cryptocurrencies shift from large weak hands to stronger hands or smaller buyers. Future selling pressure from this group decreases after these events.
In the short term, these sales may continue to pressure the price downward. But in the medium term, they improve the holder base of Bitcoin.
The market becomes more resilient once the large scared sellers complete their exit.
Real interest rates continue to guide Bitcoin
The third chart compares Bitcoin with the real yields of the United States over two years, inverted. Real yields measure the interest rate after inflation. This series moves almost the same as BTC during 2025.
When real yields fall, the inverted line rises. Bitcoin usually rises along with that line because it improves liquidity. Lower real yields make risk assets more attractive than safe bonds.
Since late summer, real yields have started to rise again. The inverted line fell and Bitcoin followed it. This shows that macro conditions still dictate the main trend.
Federal Reserve rate cuts alone may not fix this. What matters is how the market expects real borrowing costs to change. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real yields could rise.
For Bitcoin, a new strong bullish phase likely needs easier real conditions. Until the bond market anticipates that change, BTC rallies face macroeconomic headwinds.
Taker buyers in the spot market are returning
The fourth chart follows the Taker CVD in the 90-day spot market across major exchanges. The CVD measures the net volume of market orders that cross the spread. It shows whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate.
During several weeks of decline, the regime was one of Seller Dominance by takers. Red bars filled the chart as sellers accepted bids in spot markets. This coincided with the gradual drop in price.
Now the signal has changed. The metric has just moved to Buyer Dominance by takers, with green bars present again. Now, aggressive buyers outnumber aggressive sellers on spot exchanges.
This is an early but significant change. Trend reversals often begin with these changes in microstructure. First, buyers appear, then the price stabilizes, and then larger flows arrive.
A single day of data is never enough. However, if a green regime is maintained, it would confirm that real demand has returned. It would show that spot markets are absorbing supply from STH and capitulating whales.
What does all this mean for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as Christmas approaches?
Overall, the four charts show a late-stage correction, not a new bull market. Short-term holders and new whales are recording significant losses and continue to sell when there is strength. Macro real yields continue to limit risk appetite at the index level.
At the same time, some bases for a possible recovery are noticeable. The capitulation of new whales cleans the holder base. Taker buyers from the spot market are returning, which reduces the downward velocity. As Christmas 2025 approaches, Bitcoin seems to be in a range and bearish trend, hovering around $90,000.
Drops towards the mid or high $80,000 range remain possible if real yields stay high. For a clear bullish shift, these three signals will likely be needed:
First, the price must recover the realized price of short-term holders and stay above it.
Second, two-year real yields should fall, easing financial conditions.
Third, buyer dominance by takers must be maintained, confirming strong spot demand.
Until that happens, traders face an unstable market influenced by macroeconomic data and trapped holders. Long-term investors may view this stage as a period for planning rather than taking aggressive risks.
