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🔥The Bank of Japan's "hawkish" stance continues! Interest rate hike pace hasn't stopped, is the crypto market on the eve of a storm?
The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to raising interest rates next week, but will emphasize that: every step will closely monitor economic responses. Although the market has bet that the interest rate will rise to 0.75% on December 19, reaching a thirty-year high, the storm is far from over. Insiders reveal that the central bank will downplay neutral interest rate forecasts and instead use actual economic data as a compass for interest rate hikes.
Why is this crucial? Actual interest rates remain deeply negative, inflation has been above 2% for three years, giving the Bank of Japan the confidence to continue "gradual interest rate hikes." Even if the interest rate approaches the lower limit of the neutral range (1.0%-2.5%), the central bank still refuses to "hit the brakes," aiming to break the "accommodative inertia."
But suspense arises: the path of interest rate hikes will rely more on loan, financing, and consumption data, increasing policy uncertainty. A former chief economist warned: accurately calculating the neutral interest rate is "almost impossible," and gradual interest rate hikes have become the only realistic path.
The impact on the crypto market is profound: the cost of yen arbitrage is rising, liquidity is tightening, and Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue to face pressure. If subsequent data is strong, global capital rebalancing may lead to the sell-off of risk assets.
Strategies for crypto friends:
✅ Reduce leverage to guard against "black swans";
✅ Pay attention to changes in the yen exchange rate and the US-Japan interest rate differential;
✅ Accumulate quality assets during fluctuations, maintaining composure.
The Bank of Japan is walking on a "hawkish tightrope," the next step is to take off or to fall?🔥
