日本央行加息
72,711 views
44 Discussing
Hot
Latest
See original
Rate cuts and rate hikes on the same stage for the first time: The world is shifting from 'choosing currencies' to 'fleeing currencies'
Reconstruction of capital pathways under the backdrop of Federal Reserve rate cuts and Bank of Japan rate hikes: An analysis of Bitcoin allocation logic based on 'sovereign credit premium'
The current global monetary landscape is undergoing a significant differentiation: the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle (lowering the cost of dollar funds), while the Bank of Japan has ended its negative interest rate policy (initiating a yen rate-hiking cycle). The inverse movement of these two major reserve currency policies has created a classic global arbitrage trading (Carry Trade) environment. However, data and capital flows indicate that the trading logic of this cycle is experiencing a structural shift.
The current global monetary landscape is undergoing a significant differentiation: the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle (lowering the cost of dollar funds), while the Bank of Japan has ended its negative interest rate policy (initiating a yen rate-hiking cycle). The inverse movement of these two major reserve currency policies has created a classic global arbitrage trading (Carry Trade) environment. However, data and capital flows indicate that the trading logic of this cycle is experiencing a structural shift.
See original
It's explosive! Is the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December? But the yen is wildly bearish!💰
🔥 The most magical exchange rate drama of the year is unfolding～ The market is collectively betting that the Bank of Japan will start raising interest rates in December, but the yen has not only failed to rise; it has been wildly sold off, with bearish sentiment reaching recent highs!😱
What secrets lie behind this wave of 'reverse operations'? What kind of chain reactions will it bring to the cryptocurrency market?👇
📈 Market expectations are soaring: the probability of interest rate hikes exceeds 70%
As Japan's inflation continues to exceed targets, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly signaled that the 'window for interest rate adjustments is approaching'; Wall Street has already begun to position itself in advance!
· Institutions such as Bank of America and Nomura Holdings reveal: the market's expectations for a rate hike in December have exceeded 70%!
What secrets lie behind this wave of 'reverse operations'? What kind of chain reactions will it bring to the cryptocurrency market?👇
📈 Market expectations are soaring: the probability of interest rate hikes exceeds 70%
As Japan's inflation continues to exceed targets, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly signaled that the 'window for interest rate adjustments is approaching'; Wall Street has already begun to position itself in advance!
· Institutions such as Bank of America and Nomura Holdings reveal: the market's expectations for a rate hike in December have exceeded 70%!
Binance BiBi:
很高兴看到您的热情和投入！祝您和您的社区一切顺利，让我们在加密世界共同成长！
See original
Japan's interest rate hike could trigger a crypto earthquake! The reason is...
For the past 30 years, the world has been playing a massive financial game, borrowing yen from Japan at almost zero cost, converting it into dollars, and then using that money to buy US stocks, Bitcoin, global real estate, and anything else that could appreciate in value. Therefore, Japanese bonds are a source of global hidden wealth, a phenomenon known professionally as yen carry trade. The exact scale of this transaction is unknown, but some institutions predict it's tens of trillions of dollars, equivalent to nearly 100 trillion RMB flowing globally, all thanks to the yen as a fulcrum. This money has driven up the Nasdaq, Bitcoin, gold, and virtually all global assets.
Binance BiBi:
嘿！很高兴为你分析。这篇文章见解很棒！简单来说，它的观点是：如果日本央行在12月18-19日的会议上决定加息，可能会迫使通过借贷日元来投资比特币的资金进行平仓，从而给BTC价格带来短期下行压力。在会议之前，市场情绪可能会因此而变得更加敏感和波动。投资有风险，要记得自己做好研究哦！
See original
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Japan raises interest rates, where are the real opportunities?
90% of people are currently misunderstanding one thing.
They thought that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut would lead to a rise in technology stocks. But the real logic chain is as follows:
Japan raises interest rates → Hundreds of billions of dollars in carry trades unwind → Global dollar flows back madly → Liquidity tightens in the short term → Highly leveraged assets plummet first
It's like filling a swimming pool with water while someone pulls the plug at the bottom. The key is: the speed of pulling the plug is much faster than filling the water.
-----------------------------------------------
Three types of assets are best not to be heavily invested in right now:
1️⃣. Highly leveraged technology stocks
They thought that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut would lead to a rise in technology stocks. But the real logic chain is as follows:
Japan raises interest rates → Hundreds of billions of dollars in carry trades unwind → Global dollar flows back madly → Liquidity tightens in the short term → Highly leveraged assets plummet first
It's like filling a swimming pool with water while someone pulls the plug at the bottom. The key is: the speed of pulling the plug is much faster than filling the water.
-----------------------------------------------
Three types of assets are best not to be heavily invested in right now:
1️⃣. Highly leveraged technology stocks
Feed-Creator-821c5b800:
胡诌八扯
See original
🔥Why did the Bank of Japan suddenly become "hawkish"? Is the interest rate hike in December due to helplessness or calculation?
💵On December 1st, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda unusually "leaked" in advance, stating that interest rate hikes would be discussed at the meeting on December 18-19. Market expectations skyrocketed, with predicted probabilities soaring from 50% to over 85%. Why is the Bank of Japan in such a hurry? This is definitely not just an economic issue. 🐶
🔍 Four core reasons to understand the central bank's "tightening spell" 🐶
1. Sniping inflation is urgent
The most direct pressure for interest rate hikes comes from persistently high inflation. Japan's inflation rate has exceeded its 2% target for more than three consecutive years. At the same time, the massive depreciation of the yen has brought significant "imported inflation" pressure, and price issues are troubling the Japanese people.
🔍 Four core reasons to understand the central bank's "tightening spell" 🐶
1. Sniping inflation is urgent
The most direct pressure for interest rate hikes comes from persistently high inflation. Japan's inflation rate has exceeded its 2% target for more than three consecutive years. At the same time, the massive depreciation of the yen has brought significant "imported inflation" pressure, and price issues are troubling the Japanese people.
Binance BiBi:
Hey there! That's a really insightful analysis you've put together. Thanks for sharing it with the community
See original
The Bank of Japan is about to tighten the global "tap". Is the crypto world ready? 🚨
🔥 Pay attention to a macro variable that could ignite the market! The world's largest source of "cheap funds"—the Bank of Japan—may soon take action to tighten! Once Japan raises interest rates, the global liquidity landscape will be shaken, and the impact on the crypto market may be more direct than you think! 💥
In simple terms, the logic chain is as follows:
💰 The disappearance of cheap yen → 🌍 Global arbitrage trades being closed → 📉 Risk assets being sold off
Japan's long-term zero interest rates have made "borrowing yen and buying globally" the favorite arbitrage game on Wall Street. A rate hike will directly increase costs, forcing funds to retreat from U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the cryptocurrencies we care about back to Japan.
The impact on the crypto world may happen in two steps:
1. Short-term shock: Liquidity expectations tighten, market volatility increases, and mainstream coins like Bitcoin may face short-term pullback pressure. Leveraged players need to be especially careful!
2. Medium to long-term game: If a rate hike by Japan triggers global uncertainty, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" may be reinforced. At the same time, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts will create a complex hedge, and the final outcome will depend on which force is stronger.
As an investor, what should you do now?
Keep a close eye on two key indicators: the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese government bond yields. They are the thermometer of global funding sentiment.
In summary: A rate hike by Japan is an important step on the macro chessboard, more like a "brake" or "pump" that will exacerbate market volatility and test your holding power. However, it cannot solely determine bull or bear markets; the true direction remains in the hands of the Fed, technological developments, and the core narratives of adoption.
What do you think? If Japan really raises interest rates, will it be a "black swan" for the crypto world or a "false alarm"? Will your investment strategy change as a result? Let's discuss in the comments! 👇
$BTC $ETH
#日本央行加息 #加密货币
🔥 Pay attention to a macro variable that could ignite the market! The world's largest source of "cheap funds"—the Bank of Japan—may soon take action to tighten! Once Japan raises interest rates, the global liquidity landscape will be shaken, and the impact on the crypto market may be more direct than you think! 💥
In simple terms, the logic chain is as follows:
💰 The disappearance of cheap yen → 🌍 Global arbitrage trades being closed → 📉 Risk assets being sold off
Japan's long-term zero interest rates have made "borrowing yen and buying globally" the favorite arbitrage game on Wall Street. A rate hike will directly increase costs, forcing funds to retreat from U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the cryptocurrencies we care about back to Japan.
The impact on the crypto world may happen in two steps:
1. Short-term shock: Liquidity expectations tighten, market volatility increases, and mainstream coins like Bitcoin may face short-term pullback pressure. Leveraged players need to be especially careful!
2. Medium to long-term game: If a rate hike by Japan triggers global uncertainty, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" may be reinforced. At the same time, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts will create a complex hedge, and the final outcome will depend on which force is stronger.
As an investor, what should you do now?
Keep a close eye on two key indicators: the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese government bond yields. They are the thermometer of global funding sentiment.
In summary: A rate hike by Japan is an important step on the macro chessboard, more like a "brake" or "pump" that will exacerbate market volatility and test your holding power. However, it cannot solely determine bull or bear markets; the true direction remains in the hands of the Fed, technological developments, and the core narratives of adoption.
What do you think? If Japan really raises interest rates, will it be a "black swan" for the crypto world or a "false alarm"? Will your investment strategy change as a result? Let's discuss in the comments! 👇
$BTC $ETH
#日本央行加息 #加密货币
加密朵儿puppies:
写的很好👍 你是最棒的！❤️
See original
[Replay] 🎙️ 牛还在ETH看8500，12月美联储降息+日本加息
04 h 13 m 49 s · 12.7k listens
See original
Bank of Japan Tightens Liquidity, Global Panic? Old Chen: Don't Panic, This Rate Hike Might Be the Biggest Smoke Bomb in the Crypto World!
Brothers, I am Old Chen. Early this morning, I was again updated by a significant piece of news: Bank of America predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 0.75% in December, and then every six months thereafter! Looking at this momentum, the last holdout of global central bank easing is also preparing to tighten the tap.
Many newcomers immediately feel weak in the knees: It's over, global liquidity is tightening, isn't Bitcoin going to crash? The panic sentiment in the market does indeed have that flavor now.
But Old Chen tells you, things are not that simple. Today, I will break it down for you in plain language, whether this is truly bad news or just another smoke bomb of expectations management.
Many newcomers immediately feel weak in the knees: It's over, global liquidity is tightening, isn't Bitcoin going to crash? The panic sentiment in the market does indeed have that flavor now.
But Old Chen tells you, things are not that simple. Today, I will break it down for you in plain language, whether this is truly bad news or just another smoke bomb of expectations management.
Chuck Devillier lP3e:
成功发
See original
#日本央行加息 Japan's interest rate hike = "Landlords suddenly raising rent", how will BTC react?
Imagine this: you've been investing everywhere with ultra-low interest rate yen, equivalent to landlords not raising rent for years. Now the landlord wants to raise the price - what will you do?
Most people will either:
1. First get rid of a few "useless houses" (high-risk assets),
2. Or grit their teeth and spend more money (reduce leverage).
In the crypto world, it means:
• Some large funds may first reduce holdings in altcoins and DeFi high-yield products
• BTC and mainstream coins may be sold off together in the short term, but in the medium term, they may have a chance to be seen as "the more reliable group."
What are you more worried about right now:
👉 BTC retracing again, or
👉 Insufficient bullets after the retracement is in place?
Imagine this: you've been investing everywhere with ultra-low interest rate yen, equivalent to landlords not raising rent for years. Now the landlord wants to raise the price - what will you do?
Most people will either:
1. First get rid of a few "useless houses" (high-risk assets),
2. Or grit their teeth and spend more money (reduce leverage).
In the crypto world, it means:
• Some large funds may first reduce holdings in altcoins and DeFi high-yield products
• BTC and mainstream coins may be sold off together in the short term, but in the medium term, they may have a chance to be seen as "the more reliable group."
What are you more worried about right now:
👉 BTC retracing again, or
👉 Insufficient bullets after the retracement is in place?
See original
$BTC Japan will raise interest rates in December, and then every 6 months thereafter. The liquidity in the cryptocurrency market will be insufficient again. Institutions are predicting an 80% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, while Japan and the US are doing this together #日本央行加息
See original
#日本央行加息 A Japanese phrase caused a stir in the global market: Will US Treasuries be 'bled dry' and will the Fed's rate cuts fail?
On December 2, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, suddenly made a tough statement: "An interest rate hike may happen this month"—this "bombshell" left the global financial community stunned.
Who would have thought? Everyone thought Japan would continue its easy monetary policy, but this surprise attack pushed Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 1.879%, the highest since June 2008. Even more shockingly, this fire spread directly to the United States: the yield on US 10-year Treasuries soared to 4.095%, having just dipped below 4% last week, now rebounding to slap the market.
Why is the US so anxious? Because Japan is the largest "overseas creditor" of US Treasuries—holding $1.2 trillion in US debt! If Japan truly raises interest rates, domestic bond yields will rise, and Japan's money will definitely flow back from US Treasuries, effectively "bleeding" the US market dry.
Wall Street is now worried: previously, as US Treasury yields fell, mortgage rates dropped, and the stock market rose, which also supported the Fed's plans to cut rates. But now with Japan's actions, US Treasury yields are on the rise, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and increasing mortgage costs for ordinary people, disrupting the Fed's rate cut strategy.
This situation is like a butterfly flapping its wings—one statement from Japan causes the global market to tremble. Now everyone is betting: will the "funding anchor" of US Treasuries loosen? Are the Fed's rate cuts doomed?
What do you think the market will do next? Let's chat in the comments! #美联储会议 #加密市场观察
On December 2, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, suddenly made a tough statement: "An interest rate hike may happen this month"—this "bombshell" left the global financial community stunned.
Who would have thought? Everyone thought Japan would continue its easy monetary policy, but this surprise attack pushed Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 1.879%, the highest since June 2008. Even more shockingly, this fire spread directly to the United States: the yield on US 10-year Treasuries soared to 4.095%, having just dipped below 4% last week, now rebounding to slap the market.
Why is the US so anxious? Because Japan is the largest "overseas creditor" of US Treasuries—holding $1.2 trillion in US debt! If Japan truly raises interest rates, domestic bond yields will rise, and Japan's money will definitely flow back from US Treasuries, effectively "bleeding" the US market dry.
Wall Street is now worried: previously, as US Treasury yields fell, mortgage rates dropped, and the stock market rose, which also supported the Fed's plans to cut rates. But now with Japan's actions, US Treasury yields are on the rise, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and increasing mortgage costs for ordinary people, disrupting the Fed's rate cut strategy.
This situation is like a butterfly flapping its wings—one statement from Japan causes the global market to tremble. Now everyone is betting: will the "funding anchor" of US Treasuries loosen? Are the Fed's rate cuts doomed?
What do you think the market will do next? Let's chat in the comments! #美联储会议 #加密市场观察
See original
Expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike trigger a global storm, with Bitcoin and the stock market both falling and gold rising against the trend.
Today's market movement can be fully understood as: the Japanese bond market has thrown a 'big stone', causing waves in global liquidity.
1. Japanese government bonds are 'roaring', and global assets are trembling along.
Recently, Japanese government bond yields have suddenly surged:
The 10-year Japanese bond has reached about 1.84%, the highest level since 2008;
The 20-year rate is approaching 2.88%, hitting a new high since the end of the last century.
The market almost universally assumes that the Bank of Japan's probability of raising interest rates on December 19 has significantly increased, which means one thing for global funds: 'cheap yen money is hard to borrow.'
1. Japanese government bonds are 'roaring', and global assets are trembling along.
Recently, Japanese government bond yields have suddenly surged:
The 10-year Japanese bond has reached about 1.84%, the highest level since 2008;
The 20-year rate is approaching 2.88%, hitting a new high since the end of the last century.
The market almost universally assumes that the Bank of Japan's probability of raising interest rates on December 19 has significantly increased, which means one thing for global funds: 'cheap yen money is hard to borrow.'
徐四:
说的有点道理
See original
Crash Warning: 76% chance of igniting a 14 trillion 'bomb', have you bottomed out your $BTC ?
This morning BTC fell below 86000, do you think it was just a routine sell-off? I was sweating cold while staring at the screen——because of one number: 76%. The market bets that the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike probability in December has soared to 76%, reaching 90% in January. This is not just an interest rate hike; it's a fuse to ignite a global 14 trillion yen carry trade!
For decades, the almost zero-interest yen has been borrowed, converted into dollars, and poured into U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Once Japan raises rates, a massive amount of capital will instantly flow back to close positions. The result? BTC will bear the brunt. Look at the data: BTC plummeted over 20% in a single month, with $3.5 billion flowing out of ETFs, and over $400 million in long positions evaporated overnight. The market is as fragile as paper.
Don't forget the Federal Reserve! Powell won’t talk about policy tonight, which is even scarier—silent periods are often the calm before the storm. If Japan tightens and the U.S. doesn't ease, BTC will face a 'double whammy'.
Take a look at BNB, it's fallen to a point that makes you want to cry. The new official, Lina, has parachuted in as the growth director of BSC, but the retail investors are almost all gone, what will drive growth? On-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buying price, and the once-popular penguin has tragically turned into a 'fallen penguin'. But don’t rush, the most panicked are not you—but the new officials and exchanges. Market rescue? Perhaps it’s already on the way.
Remember: Carry trade liquidation is a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After Japan raises rates in 2024, BTC will reach a new high in three months. Key points to watch: the mid-December meeting of the Bank of Japan and the Fed's dot plot. Don’t rush to go all in, control your positions, and survive to benefit from the next rebound.
So, today do you dare to bottom out?
#鲍威尔说了什么 #日本央行加息
This morning BTC fell below 86000, do you think it was just a routine sell-off? I was sweating cold while staring at the screen——because of one number: 76%. The market bets that the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike probability in December has soared to 76%, reaching 90% in January. This is not just an interest rate hike; it's a fuse to ignite a global 14 trillion yen carry trade!
For decades, the almost zero-interest yen has been borrowed, converted into dollars, and poured into U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Once Japan raises rates, a massive amount of capital will instantly flow back to close positions. The result? BTC will bear the brunt. Look at the data: BTC plummeted over 20% in a single month, with $3.5 billion flowing out of ETFs, and over $400 million in long positions evaporated overnight. The market is as fragile as paper.
Don't forget the Federal Reserve! Powell won’t talk about policy tonight, which is even scarier—silent periods are often the calm before the storm. If Japan tightens and the U.S. doesn't ease, BTC will face a 'double whammy'.
Take a look at BNB, it's fallen to a point that makes you want to cry. The new official, Lina, has parachuted in as the growth director of BSC, but the retail investors are almost all gone, what will drive growth? On-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buying price, and the once-popular penguin has tragically turned into a 'fallen penguin'. But don’t rush, the most panicked are not you—but the new officials and exchanges. Market rescue? Perhaps it’s already on the way.
Remember: Carry trade liquidation is a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After Japan raises rates in 2024, BTC will reach a new high in three months. Key points to watch: the mid-December meeting of the Bank of Japan and the Fed's dot plot. Don’t rush to go all in, control your positions, and survive to benefit from the next rebound.
So, today do you dare to bottom out?
#鲍威尔说了什么 #日本央行加息
will win 张:
@Binance BiBi 对此内容进行事实核查
See original
$ETH $币安人生
Welcome to the live broadcast room for brothers and sisters who pass by to communicate #日本央行加息
Welcome to the live broadcast room for brothers and sisters who pass by to communicate #日本央行加息
[Replay] 🎙️ 牛还在ETH看8500，12月以太坊升级+降息会议
05 h 01 m 47 s · 14.5k listens
See original
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike Triggers Cryptocurrency Flash Crash: The Global Liquidity Inflection Point is the Core Killer
The market always habitually seeks the most intuitive 'scapegoat' for a crash. After today's bloody collapse in the cryptocurrency market, speculations like 'Chinese regulatory storm' and 'Powell's resignation panic' are rampant. However, upon closer inspection, one will find that these explanations are either logically broken or purely speculative.
The real culprit is the signal from the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, released between 7:00 and 8:00 this morning — this 'liquidity switch' that has been ignored by the vast majority of investors.
The timestamp does not lie.
Looking back at the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate suddenly plummeted around 7:30 this morning, dropping more than 0.5% in just 30 minutes; Bitcoin simultaneously entered a vertical decline mode, dropping from $98,000 to $89,000, with other altcoins bleeding heavily. This cross-market, synchronous, millisecond-level response cannot be explained by ordinary negative news.
The real culprit is the signal from the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, released between 7:00 and 8:00 this morning — this 'liquidity switch' that has been ignored by the vast majority of investors.
The timestamp does not lie.
Looking back at the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate suddenly plummeted around 7:30 this morning, dropping more than 0.5% in just 30 minutes; Bitcoin simultaneously entered a vertical decline mode, dropping from $98,000 to $89,000, with other altcoins bleeding heavily. This cross-market, synchronous, millisecond-level response cannot be explained by ordinary negative news.
See original
The bear market is here... [Every rebound is for better price points, here are the short positions for everyone, a chance to make 💰. Every crash is also for a better rebound [just a rebound]. As long as the rhythm is well grasped, the speed of making money is just a bit slower, and more attention should be focused on mainstream coins. #BTC走势分析 #日本央行加息
See original
Understand the latest cryptocurrency news
Mr. Jin interprets various market information
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#加密市場回調 #美联储重启降息步伐 #日本央行加息
Mr. Jin interprets various market information
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#加密市場回調 #美联储重启降息步伐 #日本央行加息
[Replay] 🎙️ 牛还在ETH看8500，12月降息+以太坊升级+停止缩表
05 h 06 m 52 s · 13.6k listens
See original
There are currently several significant risk points:
1. Trump’s poor performance in the debate and his approval rating have declined, which may have a negative impact on confidence in the digital currency market.
2. The leader of the Bank of Japan once again mentioned the possibility of raising interest rates, which may trigger panic selling in the U.S. market, so special vigilance is needed in evening trading.
3. The US CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, and the inflation data may not be as ideal as expected.
#特朗普
#日本央行加息
#CPI数据
1. Trump’s poor performance in the debate and his approval rating have declined, which may have a negative impact on confidence in the digital currency market.
2. The leader of the Bank of Japan once again mentioned the possibility of raising interest rates, which may trigger panic selling in the U.S. market, so special vigilance is needed in evening trading.
3. The US CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, and the inflation data may not be as ideal as expected.
#特朗普
#日本央行加息
#CPI数据
Login to explore more contents