币圈掘金人

If you ask Trump who he most wants to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the answer is only one: Kevin Hassett. This former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump era and current director of the White House National Economic Council is aggressively challenging for the position of Federal Reserve chairman with a 'growth above all' stance.
The market's reaction to this candidate is not one of expectation, but of fear—fear that he might actually take the position.
Hassett's 'growth cult': 2% inflation? GDP 4% is the only thing that matters.
Hassett's economic philosophy can be summarized in one sentence: 'Growth is everything, inflation is secondary.'

Bitcoin has completed consolidation above $93,000, and the market presents a "calm before the storm." This is not just a simple price stagnation but a sign of multiple forces achieving a delicate balance at a critical position. When technical momentum, funding dynamics, and macro narratives resonate, it often indicates that a larger market movement is brewing.
Technical analysis: The "dual-core drive" signal from MACD and RSI
The current chart shows that the Bitcoin four-hour MACD histogram has turned positive and continues to expand, with the fast and slow lines forming a healthy "golden cross after a pullback" above the midline. This type of movement usually signifies that bullish momentum is transitioning from the "startup" phase to the "acceleration" phase. The RSI indicator has rebounded from the mid-level of 55 to above 65, escaping the oversold risk while not reaching the extreme overbought area above 75, leaving ample room for price increases.

On December 4th, in the early morning, the cryptocurrency market showed a unilateral upward trend. Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a slight pullback after a surge during the Asian trading session, but overall they maintained a strong consolidation pattern. Although the current price is deviating from the intraday high, the four-hour technical pattern indicates that bullish momentum has not yet exhausted, and a short-term pullback may present an entry opportunity for buying on dips.
Strong rise in the early morning, risk aversion sentiment temporarily eased
From midnight to early morning, Bitcoin started from a low of $91,733, reaching a high of $94,185, with an increase of nearly 2.7%. It then retraced to consolidate near the $93,000 round number. Ethereum also rose in tandem, climbing from $3,062 to $3,216, and is currently trading around $3,180, with limited short-term pullback.

When the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, rarely speaks bluntly, the market listens not to predictions but to declarations. In the latest institutional outlook report, BlackRock clearly pointed out that the U.S. federal debt surpassing $38 trillion will become a 'nuclear-level' catalyst for the next super cycle in cryptocurrency. This is not some KOL's call to action, but a systemic shift signal issued by a Wall Street giant controlling $10 trillion in funds.
$38 trillion in debt: an unavoidable 'gray rhino'
By October 2025, the total amount of U.S. national debt officially exceeds $38 trillion, equivalent to 123% of GDP. The terrifying aspect of this figure lies in its acceleration of growth—$10 trillion in new debt over the past five years, surpassing the total from the previous 20 years. Interest payments on the debt have exceeded the defense budget, becoming the third-largest expenditure for the federal government.

When Trump "implicitly" indicated Hassett as a potential candidate for Federal Reserve Chair during a White House meeting, the market was not digesting a personnel news but re-pricing a cornerstone of a global financial order that has lasted for 40 years—the independence of the Federal Reserve.
This is not a simple "dove faction replacement" but a potential revolutionary logic that may transform "stable inflation" into "growth competition."
Hassett's deadly label: from "growth above all" to "politicized interest rate cuts"
Kevin Hassett is not a traditional economist but a loyal practitioner of Trump's "growthism." His three major policy tendencies are tearing apart the market's trust in the Federal Reserve:

Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 in a single-day plunge. Is this a chain reaction triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, or the result of multiple negative factors resonating together? While the market attributes the cause to the closure of yen arbitrage trades, seasoned analysts point out that this resembles a structural deleveraging magnified by macro events, rather than simply being policy-driven.
Plummeting data: $460 million in long positions liquidated is just the surface
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin dipped to a low of $83,862 within 24 hours, before recovering to around $86,564. CoinGlass's liquidation statistics are even more alarming: 173,660 traders were liquidated, totaling $587 million, with long position liquidations accounting for 78%, nearing $460 million.

While the entire crypto community is still debating the effectiveness of Bitcoin's halving cycle, a saying has already circulated in Wall Street trading rooms: "This time it's tougher than the halving."
On the night of November 30, when the Federal Register quietly published a proposal to amend the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR), a Telegram message exploded in institutional trading groups: "eSLR is cut, the game is over."
Behind this line of text is $210 billion of bank capital that has been tied up for a full ten years, soon to be released.

The forgotten shackles: How does eSLR suppress banks from buying bonds?
Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) is a regulatory red line established after the 2008 financial crisis, requiring banks' Tier 1 Capital to be at least 5% of total assets (6% for large banks). This means that for every $100 of U.S. Treasury bonds held, banks need to freeze $6 of capital, significantly reducing the attractiveness of holding government bonds.

On December 3, a remark from Trump during a Cabinet meeting at the White House sent shockwaves through the global financial markets. When introducing White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, he inadvertently stated: "The potential Federal Reserve Chairman is right here."
This not only confirms weeks of media speculation but also marks the official beginning of the transition of power at the Federal Reserve.
Runner Hassett: Just One Step Away from "Candidate" to "Chairman"
Although Trump stated that he would officially announce the nomination "early next year," sources say Hassett is already the "top candidate." The 63-year-old economist previously served as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term and will assume the role of Director of the National Economic Council upon returning to government in January 2025.

When Bitcoin dropped from $90,000 to $85,000, most people's attention was focused on the dynamics of Chinese regulation. However, history has repeatedly shown that the short-term impact of such news is limited, and the market will quickly return to its own operating logic. What we really need to be vigilant about is the systemic risk triggered by the Bank of Japan's policy shift — this 'gray rhino' is accelerating towards us.
The overlooked signal: Japanese government bond yields soar to the highest level since 2008
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has quietly broken through 1.1%, reaching the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Behind this number is the market's strong expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. Why is this so critical? To understand its power, we need to break down the 'yen carry trade' mechanism that has lasted for 30 years.

"BTC plummeted to $85,600 in one day" "$20 trillion arbitrage trading is about to explode" "December 19 will be a bloodbath" — this tweet perfectly replicates all the elements of panic marketing: an urgent timeframe, massive numerical impact, memories of blood and tears, and a savior posture.
But the truth is: the risk of closing arbitrage trades does exist, but it is far from the apocalyptic scenario described in the article.

Fact-checking: What is true, and what is false?
✅ Real part
1. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates is high: The probability of a rate hike on December 19 is indeed in the range of 60%-80%, and Kazuo Ueda has released a clear hawkish signal.

"Breaking through the 86000 mark" "Prelude to a $14 trillion collapse" "$400 million long positions lost" — this article, filled with exclamation marks and panic vocabulary, accurately strikes the nerves of retail investors. But the truth is: this is almost a marketing piece that exaggerates and confuses facts for traffic.
Let’s peel away the emotional facade and see the real market picture.
Fact check: Is $86000 a "plunge" or normal fluctuation?
According to OKX market data, the BTC price on November 23, 2025, is $86054.6, with a 24-hour increase of 1.09%. $86000 is not a "free fall," but rather the central position of the current oscillation range. The article deliberately ignores the timestamp, describing historical fluctuations as a "panic event" of "today," which is a typical technique of temporal dislocation.

$BTC Recently, a voice has been circulating in the tweets of the cryptocurrency community: "The market seems to have bottomed out; it's impossible for everyone to be bearish and for a bear market to really set in." This optimistic sentiment based on the "contrarian indicator" just reflects the current collective confusion in the market—fear and hope intertwined, bearishness and bottom-fishing occurring simultaneously.
However, the true bottom has never been judged by "feelings." Let's remove the emotional filter and see what the data says.
"Universal bearishness" is indeed a bottom signal, but there is a premise.
Historically, at the end of 2018, in March 2020, and in November 2022, the market experienced moments of extreme panic. At that time, the "fear and greed index" fell below 10, and social media was filled with rhetoric about "Bitcoin going to zero." However, emotional extremism is merely a necessary but not sufficient condition; the key factors still depend on three hard indicators:

Can a single statement from the Federal Reserve really make Bitcoin choose between $80,000 and $100,000?
On December 2, millions of cryptocurrency investors around the world held their breath, waiting for every word from Powell at the Federal Reserve policy meeting. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to officially end quantitative tightening (QT), but the real suspense is: will there be a rate cut in December? This question could determine whether Bitcoin breaks through $95,000 or falls back to the critical psychological support level of $80,000.
Liquidity Turning Point: From "Twisting the Faucet" to "Opening the Floodgates"?

The market always habitually seeks the most intuitive 'scapegoat' for a crash. After today's bloody collapse in the cryptocurrency market, speculations like 'Chinese regulatory storm' and 'Powell's resignation panic' are rampant. However, upon closer inspection, one will find that these explanations are either logically broken or purely speculative.
The real culprit is the signal from the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, released between 7:00 and 8:00 this morning — this 'liquidity switch' that has been ignored by the vast majority of investors.
The timestamp does not lie.
Looking back at the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate suddenly plummeted around 7:30 this morning, dropping more than 0.5% in just 30 minutes; Bitcoin simultaneously entered a vertical decline mode, dropping from $98,000 to $89,000, with other altcoins bleeding heavily. This cross-market, synchronous, millisecond-level response cannot be explained by ordinary negative news.

@币圈掘金人 Fact check: The policy is true, but "comprehensive suspension" is an exaggerated interpretation.
On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve officially announced the end of the reduction in the amount of Treasury holdings starting December 1. This policy adjustment is true, but it is not what users refer to as "the comprehensive suspension of the balance sheet reduction effective immediately." The real situation is:
• Treasury section: Cease the rollover of up to $50 billion of maturing securities each month, stabilizing holdings through the extension of maturing Treasuries.
• MBS section: Continue to allow up to $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities to mature each month, but reinvest all principal into U.S. Treasury securities.

As the Asian market opened and fell, Bitcoin teetered before the technical support level of $91,200. This downturn is not merely a release of emotions but a structural adjustment triggered by a macro liquidity turning point. Although the mentioned "Powell's resignation" is completely false news, the expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the overshooting of Federal Reserve policy are forming a rare "Davis Double-Whammy" effect in the cryptocurrency market.

1. Direct Trigger: The "Closing Tsunami" of Yen Arbitrage Trading
The hawkish shift of the Bank of Japan is the true igniter of this round of decline.

When CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" pushed the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December to 87.4%, the market faced not the suspense of "whether or not to cut", but the brutal test of "so what if they do cut". This figure was refreshed on the morning of December 1, 2025, seemingly rolling out the red carpet for risk assets, but in reality, it may have already overdrafted the good news to a dangerous edge.
The data itself is real: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is indeed as high as 87.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 12.6%; the cumulative probability of a 25BP rate cut in January next year is 67.5%, and for a 50BP cut, it is 23.2%. However, what is more alarming is that this 87.4% figure has remained for several days, indicating that the market has fully priced in the rate cut with real capital—when consensus approaches 100%, true price fluctuations often come from "worse than expected" black swans.

@币圈掘金人 When BlackRock "yields," perhaps the market bottom is truly established
On November 28, 2025, after weeks of bloodletting in the Bitcoin spot ETF market, a sudden net inflow of $71.37 million appeared. This is not simply a case of a prodigal son returning, but rather a "institutional repositioning" initiated by ARK Invest and Fidelity—on that day, ARKB attracted $88.04 million, FBTC harvested $77.45 million, while the industry giant BlackRock's IBIT saw a rare net outflow of $114 million. This pattern of "the leader yielding, while the second and third charge forward" reveals a more genuine shift in market power than a simple rise across the board.

From the rumors of "10-minute shopping" to see the restructuring of market structure@币圈掘金人
Recently circulated news that "BlackRock bought 300 BTC and 16,000 ETH from Coinbase in 10 minutes" has caused a huge stir in the crypto community. Although the accuracy of this data is yet to be verified (large transfers do not equal immediate purchases, and are more likely to be inventory adjustments for ETF subscriptions and redemptions), the trends revealed behind it are real and profound: the crypto market is undergoing a paradigm shift from retail-driven to institution-led.
BlackRock's $13 trillion in assets under management, Bitcoin ETF surpassing $100 billion AUM, Ethereum ETF attracting $17 billion—these numbers collectively outline a new reality: Wall Street is no longer the "barbarian" at the gate, but has become one of the rule-makers who have entered the hall.