币圈掘金人

"The probability of the U.S. government shutting down at the end of the month is 75%"—when this prediction was posted on the Polymarket homepage, Bitcoin was crashing through $88,000 for the third time. In the past 7 days, over 110,000 contract accounts were liquidated, long positions evaporated $230 million, with the largest single liquidation of $4.85 million occurring at 3 AM on Hyperliquid.
Macro traders are watching the CME's "interest rate cut probability" drop from 75% all the way down to 24%, while crypto KOLs are still debating whether $82,000 can hold. The real "smart money" has long since turned off the K-line, packaging ETH, SOL, and stablecoins into an on-chain vault, quietly transferring to an AI native public chain—Vanar Chain—that rarely appears in hot search trends.

A 'personnel earthquake' capable of changing the global financial landscape is brewing.
In the Polymarket prediction market, the probability of BlackRock's global chief investment officer Rick Rieder becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has soared to 58%, an astonishing jump from 6% to 58% in just a few days. It is worth noting that such a high probability in prediction markets often means 'a done deal' — the market has almost taken this Wall Street titan's leadership of the world's most important central bank as the baseline scenario.
Wall Street's 'Wolf of Wall Street' takes the helm at the Federal Reserve: a silent financial revolution

While the market was still debating whether AI agents would replace memes, a "nihilistic penguin" quietly climbed ashore. On January 25, 2025, Binance Alpha broke the nearly 12-month "Solana pure meme vacuum" by listing $PENGUIN—a new coin based on an old meme that originated from a 2007 documentary appearing in White House tweets and then surging to a market capitalization of $100 million. This article traces $PENGUIN 's path to mainstream success, compares data from Solana memes during their dry season, and, combined with the latest market trends, presents a trading framework for "political memes": Is it a flash in the pan, or a sentinel for the return of animal coins?

When $280 million was liquidated across the network within 24 hours and the spot ETF saw a rare net inflow of $110 million, the market is using a 'blunt knife' to carve a bullish gravestone at $3000. This article combines the latest on-chain data from January 25, option skew, and the main market to analyze whether ETH's 'calm period' at $2960 is a rose bottom or a breakup bottom, and provides a replicable 'tea money short' roadmap—go with the trend, use a light position, and run fast; staying alive allows for the next round.

1. Market sketch: After the waterfall comes the 'sleeping pill'
On the morning of January 23, ETH plummeted 18% from $3400 in just 6 hours, piercing down to $2864, marking the largest single-day drop since August of last year. In the following 48 hours, the price lay flat in the $2960 ±20 range as if injected with a tranquilizer, with the 4-hour Bollinger middle band trending down, while the volatility index (DVOL) fell from 92 to 78—a typical 'volatility collapse'. More subtly, the Coinbase premium (US premium) narrowed from -120 bps to -20 bps, while the Korean premium (Kimchi premium) remained deep at -250 bps, as Asian retail investors continued to 'cut losses', and US funds began to 'pick up the knife'.

Venezuela's election $6 million market crashes overnight, Trump’s 12-hour shutdown evaporates $20 million in price differences, and Zelensky’s suit sparks a $200 million long-short dispute—these seemingly absurd 'false cases' hide the same wall that prevents prediction markets from growing: who will decide? This article combines the latest crypto trends as of January 2026, financing in the AI sector, and regulatory winds, suggesting that 'AI judges + on-chain transparency' might be the final piece to break the bottleneck, and provides a feasible technology-economics roadmap.

1. From the 'Maduro Dilemma' to 'Zelensky's Suit': Three Lessons from the $6 Million Experience

Bitcoin has repeatedly "topped out" at $91,000, while Ethereum has surged and plummeted around the $3,000 mark, and gold has quietly reached four times its level after the millennium. As macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, and on-chain chip structures all reach a critical point, the bet on "new highs or double tops" is unavoidable. This article combines the latest market data from January 24, policy dynamics, and on-chain indicators to provide actionable position management and hedging strategies, helping traders stabilize their positions and amplify their risk-reward ratio in a highly volatile, narrative-driven, and crowded "three highs" market.

Against the backdrop of continued institutional inflows and an increasingly clear regulatory environment, the two key price levels of $91,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum are undergoing unprecedented repeated tests. This article reveals the evolution of market structure reflected in these price behaviors through in-depth technical analysis, on-chain data interpretation, and macroeconomic factor assessment, providing investors with practical operational strategies for the 2025 bull market cycle.
Institutional capital reshapes the market landscape: from emotion-driven to fundamental pricing
The latest data from January 2025 shows that the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $470 million in a single day, BlackRock's IBIT product saw a net inflow of $261.82 million, and the total trading volume of all spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $3.03 billion. Notably, since the approval of ETFs in 2024, institutions have cumulatively purchased 944,330 Bitcoins, while miners produced only 127,622 new coins during the same period, meaning institutional purchases are 7.4 times the new supply.

1. An announcement, an era ends
On January 21, Dan Romero and Varun Srinivasan sent a brief 300-word farewell letter on Warpcast: The Farcaster protocol, official client, Clanker, and all code repositories will be handed over to Neynar in the coming weeks. The two founders will only retain the identity of 'observers' as they turn to 'search for the next mountain.'
This is just 20 months away from Farcaster completing a financing round led by A16z at a valuation of $1 billion in May 2024; it’s also only a Christmas season away from the community rumors circulating in Q4 2025 that 'Coinbase will take over.'

The sharpest money on Wall Street is quietly changing tracks.
On January 22, Compound founder Robert Leshner's RWA tokenized asset management platform Superstate officially announced the completion of a $82.5 million Series B funding round. The news broke simultaneously in both the crypto and traditional asset management circles—this is the largest on-chain asset management financing at the start of 2026, and it also brings Superstate's total financing to over $100 million, with assets under management (AUM) exceeding $1.2 billion.
Money itself is not surprising; what is surprising is the way money is used:
Bain Capital Crypto, Distributed Global, Haun Ventures, Brevan Howard Digital, Galaxy Digital... a lineup of 'New Crypto squads' within the 'Old Money'. They are not here to gamble on concepts; they are here to obtain licenses, secure positions, and seize profits.

At 9:30 AM Eastern Time on January 22, the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange had a slightly metallic ring compared to usual - it was the echo of 60 million private keys colliding in the safe.
BitGo (code: BTGO) priced at $18, opened at $22.43, a 25% jump is not epic, but it flooded the trader group: 'Don't focus on the K-line, what you're looking at is the foundation of a new track.'
1. Why is it said that BitGo's IPO = 'crypto water, electricity, and coal' public offering?
1. Asset side: $16 billion AUM, 4,900 institutional clients, of which 8 out of the top 10 ETF issuers.

On January 22, 2026, a major news regarding cross-border capital allocation came from New York: DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSEAMERICAN: DDC), a global leader in Asian food platforms and digital asset reserve management, announced the completion of a new round of Bitcoin accumulation, adding 200 Bitcoins to its holdings, officially surpassing a total of 1583 Bitcoins. Amid the backdrop of a phased adjustment in the crypto market in early January, which saw over 130,000 people liquidated in a single day, DDC's counter-trend accumulation not only demonstrates its firm confidence in the long-term value of digital assets but also serves as a vivid annotation of traditional enterprises integrating into the institutional wave of crypto assets.

When Ray Dalio shouts that "the era of the dollar as the reserve currency is collapsing," and when Trump's tariff stick swings towards the world again, the global asset market is staging an extreme differentiation. On one side, gold prices are rising steadily amid the rush for safe-haven assets, with London gold reaching a historic high of $4870.7/ounce, while silver surges nearly 5%; on the other side, Bitcoin plummets from $96000 to below $90000 in just a few minutes, almost wiping out all its gains since 2026. Under the triple impact of a weakening dollar, rising stagflation concerns, and intensified geopolitical games, gold and Bitcoin, once regarded as "anti-inflation assets," are heading towards entirely different futures. Behind this differentiation lies a deep reconstruction of the global monetary order and asset pricing logic.

The cryptocurrency derivatives market is undergoing an unprecedented structural transformation. Bitcoin Cash and arbitrage trading, once regarded by Wall Street institutions as a 'risk-free money printer', have now completely lost their luster, with arbitrage opportunities compressed to levels rarely seen in recent years; the open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has been surpassed by Binance for the first time since 2023. This landmark change not only signals the end of the risk-free high-yield era in the crypto market but also releases a core signal of the market's transition from wild growth to maturity and diversification.

“Another liquidation?” — This was the most frequently mentioned phrase in the Chinese Crypto community at 3 a.m. on January 21. Within just 24 hours, the entire network's contract liquidations reached 730 million USD, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of 98,440 USD, and ETH briefly hit 3,200 USD. However, 48 hours later, both regained 106,000 and 3,700 USD respectively, and the bloody drama of mutual slaughter played out once again. As we are still in shock, let's first zoom out and take a look at the underlying capital flows and policy variables behind this 'fake fall,' before providing actionable strategies. After reading, remember to share your positions in the comments section to exchange 'escape' experiences.

Market Status: Structural differentiation in consolidation
As of January 21, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical crossroads. Bitcoin is engaged in intense battles in the $90,000-$95,000 range, experiencing a slight pullback after hitting a spot price of $95,371 on January 14, with support currently building around the $90,000 mark. The total market capitalization remains at $3.1 trillion, with Bitcoin commanding an absolute dominance with a market cap of $1.9 trillion, holding a market share stable at over 61%.
Compared to the historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced nearly 30%, yet the market structure demonstrates unexpectedly strong resilience. Glassnode’s latest weekly report indicates that the current pullback is not a deterioration of the trend but a healthy consolidation of momentum — the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from high levels but remains above neutral, spot trading volume is rising moderately, and the imbalance in net buying and selling has broken through the upper limit of the statistical range, indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure.

Market Review: Technical Oversold Bounce Intertwined with Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Today (January 20, 2026), the cryptocurrency market shows typical characteristics of a technical recovery. According to the latest intraday data, the Bitcoin price is trying to escape the clearly oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) after experiencing a prolonged adjustment. Although the price is still running below the 50-day moving average (EMA50) and the bearish pressure has not completely dissipated, the main upward trend line provides crucial support, limiting further downside potential. This "support below and pressure above" consolidation pattern often indicates that the market is brewing a directional choice.

When the global financial markets tremble in the wave of 'de-dollarization', when Wall Street giants quietly hoard digital gold, and when technical indicators show that a historic breakthrough is imminent - we are standing at the threshold of a new bull market in cryptocurrency.
In the last week of 2025, Bitcoin oscillates around the $80,000 mark. Beneath the seemingly calm surface of the market, undercurrents run deep. Over the past three months, BTC has dropped from a January high of $109,640 to $74,508. This 'healthy adjustment' has led to over 163,900 long positions being liquidated, yet it has also washed out speculative chips, laying the groundwork for a structural market in 2026. At this moment, retail investors are panic-selling, while institutions are aggressively buying. MicroStrategy's decision to increase holdings by $2.1 billion in a single week, and BlackRock's crypto asset management scale soaring from $54.7 billion to $102 billion - the choice of smart money is always worth pondering.

The dormancy and breakthrough in the winter of the market
As the bells of 2026 ring, the cryptocurrency market did not welcome a promising start as many investors expected. On the contrary, mainstream currencies fell into several weeks of lateral consolidation before and after the Spring Festival holiday, trading volume shrank, and market attention dropped to a freezing point. This apparent calm is actually a precursor to a new round of structural market changes brewing. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's evolving interest rate policy tools, Bitcoin's spot ETF fund size surpassing the $100 billion mark, and the global fiat currency system facing devaluation pressure, the crypto market is undergoing a profound transformation from being driven by speculation to being driven by value. This article will analyze the current market characteristics and future trends for investors based on the latest market data and industry dynamics, and provide a set of strategies that are both offensive and defensive.

The brief surge of Bitcoin followed by a decline has turned the Meme coin market into a bloodbath.
On January 14, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $97,000 mark, greatly boosting market morale. However, the good times did not last long, as it continued to decline, and this morning saw an accelerated drop. This wave of 'roller coaster' market conditions has dealt a devastating blow to the already high-volatility Meme coin sector. According to GMGN market data, the severity of the drop is shocking for both established leaders and emerging tokens.
Data Analysis: A 'slaughter' of graded plummeting.
Established Meme coins: Relative resilience of mature projects.

On January 19, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $92,000, attracting widespread attention from the market. According to Decrypt, over $865 million was liquidated across the entire network in the past 24 hours, causing a sudden drop in sentiment in the crypto market. Lai Yuen, an investment analyst at Fisher8 Capital, pointed out that this round of decline is mainly due to the resurgence of the US-EU trade war and concerns about Trump's new round of tariff proposals. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, emphasized: "The recent Bitcoin correction is driven more by changes in global risk sentiment rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto market itself. Macroeconomic uncertainty, combined with profit-taking after a significant rise, has led investors to generally adopt a cautious strategy."