Bitcoin has repeatedly "topped out" at $91,000, while Ethereum has surged and plummeted around the $3,000 mark, and gold has quietly reached four times its level after the millennium. As macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, and on-chain chip structures all reach a critical point, the bet on "new highs or double tops" is unavoidable. This article combines the latest market data from January 24, policy dynamics, and on-chain indicators to provide actionable position management and hedging strategies, helping traders stabilize their positions and amplify their risk-reward ratio in a highly volatile, narrative-driven, and crowded "three highs" market.
1. Macro: The Fed's 'trio' is upgraded again, the weakening dollar opens the ceiling for risk assets
In December 2025, the FOMC meeting quietly removed the daily $50 billion cap on the standing repo tool (SRP), allowing banks to exchange U.S. Treasuries for liquidity from the Fed without limits. This change caused the reverse repo balance to plummet from $2.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, equivalent to a 'dark injection' of about $800 billion into the system. The dollar DXY fell 3% from its high of 105, gold broke through $4,090 per ounce, and Bitcoin benefited simultaneously, with spot ETFs net inflows of $6.63 billion over the past five weeks, and BlackRock's crypto asset scale exceeding $1 trillion. The liquidity gate has opened, but the market has not surged in a straight line due to the abundance of 'money' while 'confidence' continues to be constrained by regulatory rhythms.
2. Market: BTC at $91,000 becomes the 'gravity belt,' ETH at $3,000 has extreme volatility
Glassnode data shows that the $91,000–$95,000 range corresponds to the cost basis for short-term holders and overlaps with the 111-day moving average, with accumulated chips accounting for 18.4% of the circulating supply, forming the largest 'air platform' in history. In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has attempted to breach $95k four times and has encountered selling pressure of $250–$350 million per hour; after actively reducing short positions, they quickly covered, indicating that programmatic funds are harvesting in 'false breakouts.'
Regarding Ethereum, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to a historic low of 0.031, but the implied volatility of options has risen to 90% annualized, reaching a new high since May 2022. The market consensus is 'the direction is unclear, but there will definitely be large fluctuations.' A vulnerability in the Pectra upgrade testnet has delayed the mainnet launch to Q3, and the staking APR has dropped to 2.7%, triggering the liquidation of 67,500 ETH whale positions on-chain. Although the price has returned to 3k, the on-chain TVL is only $46.7 billion, down 42% from its peak, and the ecological 'volume-price divergence' suggests that leverage has not yet cleared.
3. Sentiment: Bitcoin's 'bloodsucking' and 'compliant ICO' narratives coexist, with funds clustering vs. risk appetite rising simultaneously
CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin's market cap share has risen to 64.3%, the highest since April 2021; at the same time, the total supply of stablecoins has increased by $12 billion over four weeks, and the average transaction size of USDT on-chain has risen to $48,000, indicating that 'whales' are loading their bullets.
On the other hand, Coinbase launched a compliant ICO platform, with the first project Monad rising 6 times within 5 minutes after opening, trading $2.8 billion in 24 hours, becoming the most eye-catching 'wealth effect' in 2025. Bitwise's CIO stated that more than 10 compliant ICOs with a market cap exceeding $1 billion may emerge in 2026, replicating the 'Ethereum moment' of 2017. The market is entering a barbell stage where 'old coins remain steadfast, new coins make surprises,' with funds fearing to miss both the BTC main uptrend and the next 100X, resulting in a fragmented picture of 'Bitcoin bloodsucking' and 'altcoin FOMO' coexisting.
4. On-chain: miner selling pressure halved, MSTR lockup effect strengthens supply-side narrative
After the halving, the miner's daily block reward dropped from 900 to 450 coins. On-chain data monitoring shows that miner wallet balances increased by 12,000 coins over the past 30 days, breaking the previous 'halving month will dump' pattern; meanwhile, MicroStrategy transferred 58,400 BTC to Fidelity custody in the past two months and announced plans to raise $7 billion in 2026 to continue buying coins, equivalent to pre-locking the future 8 months of miner output. The supply-side 'dual gate' has led the market to expect 'bullets to fly for a while,' becoming the biggest confidence for bulls to push towards $100,000.
5. Strategy: Three-line offense and defense map - spot anchor, volatility positions, hedging network
1. Spot anchor (40%)
Logic: Halving + ETF inflows + SRP cap removal constitutes a supply contraction over an 18-month dimension.
Entry point: Gradually increase positions in the $85,000–$88,000 range, set stop-loss at $75,000 (equivalent to the launch platform in August 2025), target $120,000–$150,000.
2. Volatility positions (30%)
Logic: $91,000–$95,000 is a 'high volatility attractor' that can be repeatedly high-sold and low-bought.
Method: Go long when the 4h closing price breaks above $95,000, set stop-loss at $92,000, target $102,000; short when rebounding to $94,500 is blocked, set stop-loss at $96,500, target $88,000.
3. Hedging network (30%)
① ETH/BTC short: short near 0.032, target 0.027, hedging BTC stagnation or altcoin crash risk;
② Buy $80,000 BTC put options expiring at the end of March, with a premium of 2.1%, to insure the spot position;
③ Focus on compliant ICO new projects, with a single investment not exceeding 2% of total funds, using profits to thicken the spot safety cushion.
6. Risk List: Three 'Black Swans' and two 'Gray Rhinos'
Black Swan:
A. The U.S. 401(k) plan suddenly suspends the channel for allocating crypto assets;
B. Major exchanges face collective lawsuits regarding compliance, triggering the freezing of the fiat dollar channel;
C. A significant vulnerability reappears in Ethereum's mainnet upgrade, triggering a chain liquidation in DeFi.
Gray Rhino:
X. The dollar index rebounds to 110, causing global risk assets to retract by 15%–20%;
Y. Bitcoin's hash rate plummeted by 30% due to energy regulations, causing network congestion to raise on-chain transaction costs, weakening the 'digital gold' narrative.
7. Timeline: The 5 windows to watch in the next 60 days
January 29 - Federal Reserve interest rate decision - observe whether it hints at a rate cut in March;
February 6 - U.S. January CPI - if above 3.0%, soaring U.S. Treasury yields will suppress BTC;
February 14 - Ethereum Zhejiang testnet's second fork - determining whether Pectra can launch in Q3;
February 20 - Trump's State of the Union Address - may announce a new executive order on digital assets;
March 1 - Hong Kong spot BTC and ETH ETF opens for subscription - can Asian funds continue the buying momentum from U.S. stocks?
Conclusion: Leave the 'new highs' to emotions and the 'pullbacks' to plans
The market will always reward those who can 'convert' risks into option premiums in advance, rather than those who FOMO only when the K-line breaks. As the call for $100,000 grows louder, the true opponent is no longer the market, but one's own positions and heartbeat. If you are also standing in front of the $91,000 gravity belt, you might as well draw the three-line offense and defense map in your trading journal before pressing the 'confirm' button.
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4. Do you think BTC will hit $100,000 first or retrace to $85,000?
5. Do you favor the next miracle of 'Bitcoin bloodsucking' or 'compliant ICO'?
6. In your positions, what percentage is in spot, leverage, and options?
Leave your trading points and logic in the comments section, let's seek answers together from the market!#灰度提交BNB ETF申请 #ETH走势分析 #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #美国加密市场法案延迟 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 $BTC
