Everyone keeps saying that the halving defines the cycles of $BTC .

Introduction

In previous Bitcoin cycles, the structure was almost predictable: the halving reduced supply, the market gained traction, retail entered in mass, and the new all-time high appeared within a relatively stable pattern.
But this cycle broke those models.
Not only did the price behavior change; the market mechanics changed. The flow changed, the dominant agent changed, the macro changed. Therefore, analyzing 2025 through the lenses of 2017 or 2021 can lead to dangerous conclusions.