$ETH Brother Ma Ji is really a guiding light😅😅
#美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场观察 $1000LUNC $US
Brother Majie bets $33.08 million on $ETH , wagering on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, but the result is……
The Federal Reserve did indeed cut rates as the market expected, but within 24 hours, 100,000 people were liquidated, and over $200 million in funds disappeared. Among them, Brother Majie's $33.08 million is also deeply in the red.
What shocked me the most is not these numbers, but a cruel market rule: in the cryptocurrency circle, it’s all about expectations, not events.
Retail logic: Rate cut confirmed → Buy.
Institutional logic: Buy on rate cut expectations → When the result comes out, sell to retail.
This is the classic "buy the expectation, sell the fact."
For example, at the end of October, BTC was around 110,000, and the market began to hype the expectation of the "Federal Reserve's rate cut in December". Then in November, the expectation fell through, and BTC plummeted from 110,000 to about 80,000.
On December 11, the Federal Reserve really cut rates; retail investors thought the opportunity had come, buying in around 95,000. As a result, 24 hours later, BTC continued to fall to 89,000, with 100,000 people liquidated.
Retail investors bought the "fact," while institutions had already positioned themselves during the expectation phase, resulting in a significant gap.
But more devastating was Powell's statement in his speech that there would only be one rate cut in 2026; the market initially expected 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, but it was reduced to just one, and expectations fell through again, causing the market to continue to decline.
Retail investors heard "rate cut is good news," but institutions saw "long-term no more rate cuts," a huge contrast, leaving retail investors unprepared in the face of real risk, leading to liquidation and exit.
I mentioned on December 1 that the risk of the Bank of Japan raising rates is very high; if the Bank of Japan raises rates on December 18, BTC may fall again. All these factors are affecting liquidity, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut cannot stop it at all.
The conclusion is: when everyone is discussing a certain piece of good news, this good news has actually already been priced in; by the time retail investors buy in, it is already a "fact," while institutions had long positioned themselves and sold to retail.
Key lesson: Opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle always come from expectations, not from "after the fact" reactions. Next time, don’t rush to bottom fish; the market has already taken a step ahead.
💥💥💥The next key point: the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on December 18, this is the real market risk point.
#隐私叙事回归 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储降息 $SOL $BTC
The Federal Reserve did indeed cut rates as the market expected, but within 24 hours, 100,000 people were liquidated, and over $200 million in funds disappeared. Among them, Brother Majie's $33.08 million is also deeply in the red.
What shocked me the most is not these numbers, but a cruel market rule: in the cryptocurrency circle, it’s all about expectations, not events.
Retail logic: Rate cut confirmed → Buy.
Institutional logic: Buy on rate cut expectations → When the result comes out, sell to retail.
This is the classic "buy the expectation, sell the fact."
For example, at the end of October, BTC was around 110,000, and the market began to hype the expectation of the "Federal Reserve's rate cut in December". Then in November, the expectation fell through, and BTC plummeted from 110,000 to about 80,000.
On December 11, the Federal Reserve really cut rates; retail investors thought the opportunity had come, buying in around 95,000. As a result, 24 hours later, BTC continued to fall to 89,000, with 100,000 people liquidated.
Retail investors bought the "fact," while institutions had already positioned themselves during the expectation phase, resulting in a significant gap.
But more devastating was Powell's statement in his speech that there would only be one rate cut in 2026; the market initially expected 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, but it was reduced to just one, and expectations fell through again, causing the market to continue to decline.
Retail investors heard "rate cut is good news," but institutions saw "long-term no more rate cuts," a huge contrast, leaving retail investors unprepared in the face of real risk, leading to liquidation and exit.
I mentioned on December 1 that the risk of the Bank of Japan raising rates is very high; if the Bank of Japan raises rates on December 18, BTC may fall again. All these factors are affecting liquidity, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut cannot stop it at all.
The conclusion is: when everyone is discussing a certain piece of good news, this good news has actually already been priced in; by the time retail investors buy in, it is already a "fact," while institutions had long positioned themselves and sold to retail.
Key lesson: Opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle always come from expectations, not from "after the fact" reactions. Next time, don’t rush to bottom fish; the market has already taken a step ahead.
💥💥💥The next key point: the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting on December 18, this is the real market risk point.
#隐私叙事回归 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储降息 $SOL $BTC
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
ETH
3,105.24
+0.54%
1000LUNCUSDT
Perp
0.04436
-3.37%
USUSDT
Perp
0.01545
-13.34%