Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within the recent consolidation phase and is around $ 90,000 at the time of writing on Friday, while investors digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious interest rate cuts in December and its implications for risky assets.
BTC price is approaching an important declining trendline that could determine the next direction. At the same time, institutional flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs showed moderate inflows, and Strategy added more BTC to its reserve.
The Fed's stance on monetary policy triggers consolidation in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price started the week positively with an extension of the weekend's rise in the first half of the week and remained above $ 92,600 on Tuesday.
But momentum weakened on Wednesday, and BTC closed at $ 92,015 after the FOMC meeting.
As expected, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points. But the FOMC meeting signaled a likely pause in January.
In addition to the cautious tone, policymakers estimated only a quarter-point cut for the overall assessment for 2026. This was the same estimate as in September and dampened the market's expectation of two cuts, leading to pressure on risk assets in the short term.
The Fed's cautious tone, along with disappointing results from Oracle, led to a brief “risk-off” market.
All these factors weighed on the most risky assets, where the largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell to a low of $ 89,260 before rising again and closing above $ 92,500 on Thursday.
Without major U.S. economic data ahead, the cryptocurrency markets will now look towards speeches from FOMC members and general risk sentiment for direction.
towards the end of the week.
BTC is likely to consolidate in the short term unless a significant catalyst emerges.
Russia-Ukraine uncertainty limits risk-on momentum.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump is “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine, and he does not want to hear more talk, his spokesperson said Thursday.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the U.S. is pressuring the country to cede land to Russia as part of a deal to end the nearly four-year-long war.
These persistent geopolitical tensions and stalled peace talks continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, limiting the willingness to take risks and contributing to Bitcoin's consolidation so far this week.
Institutional demand shows mild signs of improvement.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows weak signs of improvement.
According to SoSoValue, data shows that American spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $ 237.44 million as of Thursday, following a weak outflow of $ 87.77 million the week before, indicating that institutional investors' interest has increased somewhat.
These weekly inflows, however, remain small compared to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to maintain its rise, inflows into the ETFs must increase.
On the corporate front, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that it purchased 10,624 Bitcoin for $ 962.7 million between December 1 and 7 at an average price of $ 90,615.
The company now owns 660,624 BTC, worth $ 49.35 billion. Strategy still has significant capacity to raise more capital, potentially opening up for further large-scale accumulation of Bitcoin going forward.
On-chain data shows reduced selling pressure.
CryptoQuant's weekly report on Wednesday highlights that selling pressure on Bitcoin is starting to wane.
The report points out that exchange deposits have calmed down after large players have reduced their transfers to the exchanges.
The chart below shows that the share of total deposits from large players has fallen from a 24-hour average of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the average deposit has fallen by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November to 0.7 BTC.
CryptoQuant concludes that if selling pressure remains low, a rise could give Bitcoin a new opportunity to climb toward $ 99,000. This level represents the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, which act as resistance during bear markets.
Above this level, the key resistance levels are $ 102,000 (one-year moving average) and $ 112,000 (Trader On-chain Realized Price).
The Copper Research report also signaled optimism for Bitcoin. The report suggests that BTC's four-year cycle is not dead; it has just been replaced.
Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has shown repetitive price-to-cost-return cycles, as the chart below illustrates.
Fadi Aboualfa, research leader at Copper, told FXStreet that “Since spot ETFs were launched, Bitcoin has moved in repetitive mini-cycles where the price retraces to its cost basis and then rises about 70%.
With BTC now trading near its cost basis of $ 84,000, this pattern suggests a price rise to over $ 140,000 within the next 180 days.
If the cost basis increases by 10–15%, as seen in previous cycles, the premiums observed at earlier peaks give a target range of $ 138,000 to $ 148,000.
Bitcoin Santa rally ahead?
Bitcoin had a loss of 17.67% in November, disappointing traders who expected an upturn based on strong historical performance for the month (see CoinGlass data below).
December has historically been a positive month for the king of crypto, with an average return of 4.55%.
Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has typically been the best quarter for BTC, with an average return of 77.38%.
However, developments in the last three months of 2025 have been disappointing so far, with a preliminary loss of 19%.
Is BTC setting a bottom?
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows that the price finds support around the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $ 85,809 and has had two consecutive green candles after a four-week correction that started in late October.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading slightly higher, remaining above $ 92,400.
If BTC continues its ascent, the rise may extend toward the 50-week EMA at $ 99,182.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is 40, pointing upward and indicating declining bearish momentum. For the rise to continue, the RSI should move above the neutral level of 50.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin price was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $ 94,253 (drawn from the April low of $ 74,508 to the all-time high of $ 126,199 set in October) on Wednesday.
But on Thursday, BTC rose again after testing its psychological level at $ 90,000.
If BTC breaks above the declining trend (marked by connecting several peaks since early October) and closes above $ 94,253
Resistance level, the rise may extend toward the psychological level of $ 100,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral 50 level, suggesting a lack of near-term momentum in either direction.
For the bullish momentum to persist, the RSI must move above the neutral level.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish cross at the end of November, which is still holding and supporting the bullish narrative.
If BTC resumes its decline, the first important support level is $ 85,569, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
