Gold price: Everyone should be mentally prepared, as the gold price may repeat the historical pattern of 2015!

"Preparation is the key to success." Friends who are paying attention to gold, has the recent fluctuation in gold prices made you feel a bit anxious? Looking back at history, many market movements have similar 'scripts'. Just like in 2015, after experiencing a wave of fluctuations, the gold price suddenly entered a phase that left a deep impression. Now, various signals indicate that the gold price may be approaching a similar point, so we need to have an idea in advance.

First, the 'new and old comparison' in policy, interest rate changes are the key drivers.

1. In 2015, the Fed began its interest rate hike cycle, which caused the dollar to strengthen and press down gold prices significantly. Now, the Fed's interest rate hikes are nearing an end, and the market is waiting for signals of rate cuts, which is the exact opposite of the policy direction in 2015.

2. In 2015, global easing policies were few, but now many central banks have started to cut interest rates. Our central bank also has structural easing, making the liquidity environment more favorable for gold as a safe-haven asset.

3. From a historical perspective, before and after the Fed's policy shift, gold prices often make significant moves. In 2015, there was a drop; will this time be reversed? It is worth pondering.

Comment: Policies act like the "baton" for gold prices. The interest rate hikes in 2015 and the current expectations of rate cuts are opposite in direction, but both could trigger significant volatility; this point must be remembered.

Second, market sentiment feels "familiar," with panic and greed in a cycle.

1. When gold prices fell in 2015, many people panicked and sold off, leading to a continuous 12-week reduction in gold ETF holdings. Now, however, when gold prices correct, ETF holdings have quietly increased, indicating that people are not as panicked; this resembles the emotional shift seen in the later part of 2015.

2. In 2015, retail investors had low interest in gold, while institutions were quietly positioning themselves. Now, institutional holdings are steadily increasing, while retail investors are still on the sidelines. This kind of "discrepancy" is often a precursor to market movements.

3. Investment sentiment is like a pendulum. In 2015, it swung to "extreme panic," and now it is slowly shifting towards "neutral." Will it swing towards "greed" next? It is worth paying attention to.

Comment: The cycle of sentiment is the norm in the market. After the panic in 2015, there was a rebound. Behind the current wait-and-see attitude, there may also be hidden opportunities; do not be misled by short-term emotions.

Third, the global situation presents "old problems in new forms," with safe-haven demand being a hard support.

1. There were geopolitical conflicts and economic turmoil in 2015, activating gold's safe-haven properties. Now, regional conflicts around the world have not stopped, and economic recovery is somewhat weak. The desire to buy gold for "stability" is as strong as it was back then.

2. In 2015, the scale of gold purchases by various central banks was not large, but now, central bank gold purchases have increased for 13 consecutive years, with 2023 setting a record. Such "national team" level buying is much more reliable than retail investors following the trend.

3. When economic uncertainty is high, gold acts like a "ballast." This was the case in 2015, and it is the same now; this has not changed.

Comment: No matter how the times change, the logic of "hiding gold in turbulent times" always has a market. The current global situation provides significant support for gold, aligning with the backdrop of 2015.

Fourth, the technical trend shows "similar patterns," with key points looking for breakthroughs.

1. In 2015, gold prices consolidated around $1050 per ounce for a long time, finally breaking through a key resistance level and rising all the way. Now, gold prices are fluctuating around $2000, and this range has also been consolidated for quite some time, resembling the "accumulation" state of that year.

2. From the perspective of moving averages, after gold prices broke through the 60-day moving average in 2015, an upward trend was established. Now, gold prices are also hovering above the 60-day moving average, and the technical support logic is similar.

3. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume gradually increased before the market started in 2015, and there are similar signs now, with funds quietly entering the market.

Comment: Technical patterns are the "footprints" of market trading. Similar footprints may lead to similar directions. The breakout trend in 2015 may provide some references for current operations.

"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." Whether gold prices will repeat the history of 2015 is uncertain, but these similar signals are worth paying attention to.

Finally, a reminder: the above content is merely an analysis based on historical and current conditions and does not constitute any investment advice. The price fluctuations of gold cannot be predicted; everyone should view it rationally based on their own situation.