I just brushed up on the speech by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Harmack. This older sister's stance is relatively hawkish, saying that policy is close to neutral and is waiting for inflation data, clearly hinting that 'interest rate cuts are not coming that soon.' Once the news broke, the market shook three times in an instant, but I dug into the on-chain data and found that things are not simple!
Negative news?
Harmack talks tough, but she didn't directly support interest rate cuts, and with the Federal Reserve admitting they have 'insufficient tools,' this exposes the structural weaknesses in the economy. Historical experience: during the Federal Reserve's hesitation period, crypto often faces short-term pressure because high interest rate expectations suppress risk appetite. However, note that she doesn't have voting rights this year! The market reaction may be overblown.
On-chain data slaps fear in the face!
Whales silently buy the dip: In the past 24 hours, the proportion of accumulation addresses in large Bitcoin on-chain transfers (>1000 BTC) has surged, while inflows to exchanges have slowed down—smart money is buying on the dip!
Position volume increases against the trend: Despite price fluctuations, the perpetual contract open interest is steadily rising, indicating that large holders are positioning for subsequent volatility and have not truly run away.
Sentiment indicators hit bottom: The fear and greed index has dropped to the 'fear zone,' but every time it reaches this position, it is the night before a rebound; I was so accurate when I called the bottom last time!
My view: short-term fluctuations, long-term structure remains intact!
Hammock's words are like 'the wolf is coming,' but the economic data is uncertain, and the Federal Reserve dares not take drastic action. The cryptocurrency market is currently being washed out, which is a good time for deleveraging. My prediction: BTC will accumulate heavily at key support levels (like $60,000?) Once inflation data falls short of expectations, the expectation for interest rate cuts will reignite, and a violent surge will come!
Strength speaks:
Old fans know, I accurately warned last month about the 'post-non-farm spike,' helping everyone avoid the crash. This time, with on-chain signals and news divergence, I remain firm—don't be scared! A drop is an opportunity, the foundation of a bull market is there, and the Federal Reserve's toolbox is long exhausted; cryptocurrency is the future!
In terms of operations:
Those with light positions can gradually ambush mainstream coins, while those with heavy positions should hold onto their spot. Remember: when others are fearful, you should open the on-chain browser to see who is buying! Like and share, and I will break down the data in detail during the evening livestream for us to profit together!
Follow me, reject the noise, and only rely on hardcore analysis to eat well!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
