Late at night, I received complaints from an old fan who had invested half a year’s salary into a 'soon-to-take-off' new project. Just three days in, they had made a 50% profit but didn't even get a chance to celebrate before, a week later, they ended up losing so much that they had to calculate the cost of instant noodles. I’ve seen this kind of storyline at least eighty times over the past ten years.
Last week, late at night, I was reviewing K-line charts when I suddenly received a barrage of messages from an old fan. Upon opening, I saw the familiar plot again—he had bet his entire half-year salary on a 'hundredfold potential' new coin. The first few days did indeed show promising growth, but before he could take a screenshot to boast on social media, the coin price plummeted, losing more than sixty percent of the principal.
I've heard this kind of story so many times it’s almost like I have calluses in my ears. It’s always like this at the end of the bear market; everyone has been trapped for so long that they become envious as soon as they see a rebound, fearing they might miss the opportunity to turn things around. Meanwhile, the scheming project parties are precisely using this psychology to carefully lay out one 'bottom-catching' trap after another.
Today, I will expose the 'underwear' of those 'surging new coins' and share two bottom-line insights that have helped me avoid most traps.
01 Trap decrypted: Why do bear market scams always succeed?
The experience of my old follower could practically be written as a textbook case. At the end of the bear market, market sentiment was low, and everyone was holding back, wanting to catch the bottom and recover their losses. At this moment, a new project emerged, with overwhelming publicity—officials released 'technical progress' on time every day, insider news circulated in the community about 'soon to be launched on major platforms', and some even shared profit screenshots to create urgency.
Three days ago, the coin price did indeed rocket, hitting a new high every day. My old follower happily came to brag to me: 'This time, I really caught the bottom!' However, on the fifth day, early in the morning, the coin price plummeted dramatically, halving in half a day. By the time he realized he wanted to cut losses, he either faced a long queue to sell or directly triggered a circuit breaker, leaving no chance to escape.
This kind of trick is actually not clever: at the end of the bear market, market confidence is weak, and project parties use intense publicity to create an atmosphere of 'don't miss out'. First, they use small funds to quickly raise the price to attract attention, and once retail investors follow suit, they decisively offload their shares. What you think is 'catching the bottom' is actually a pit they have already dug.
What’s more terrifying is that even investment masters have fallen into such traps. The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, tried to catch the bottom after the 1929 stock market crash and nearly went bankrupt; investment master Philip Fisher also lost millions of dollars by buying 'cheap stocks' during the downturn. Where did they go wrong? It was continuously guessing the bottom in a bear market and trying to catch the low.
02 Real money: Identifying the truth about capital trends
After ten years of navigating this market, I no longer rely on 'feelings' or 'news' to make judgments. What truly drives long-term price increases is never just talk but the real influx of funds.
So, how can you identify real capital trends?
Observe open contracts and capital flows
In the crypto market, OI (open interest) and CVD (cumulative volume delta) are two key indicators. When OI rises and CVD also rises, it indicates that bulls are actively opening positions; conversely, if OI rises but CVD falls, it may indicate that bears are dominating the market.
Strong capital does not make a big entrance; they prefer to quietly build positions when prices are long-term stagnant and unnoticed. So, when you notice that a certain coin is continuously fluctuating at a low level but trading volume is slowly increasing, and the bottom chips are becoming more concentrated, it is very likely that there is capital quietly positioning.
Beware of false prosperity under high leverage
A dangerous signal in the current market is that the futures open interest has reached a historical high, and the funding rates for altcoins are extremely high (some even reaching 6.8%), indicating that the market is dominated by leveraged speculation.
This kind of rise driven by leverage rather than real funding is extremely fragile; once the market reverses, a cascade of liquidations will accelerate the decline.
I remember a project from last year that consolidated sideways for more than three months at a low position, during which there was almost no publicity, and hardly anyone was talking in the community, yet the trading volume increased intermittently. Later, when the market improved slightly, it surged directly by more than five times. This is a true characteristic of having capital positioned; what they want is long-term profit, not short-term harvesting.
03 Community quality: The key to discerning real value
Many people judge project heat just by looking at the number of community members and the amount of news, which is absolutely the biggest misconception. The 'quality of community heat' is far more important than the 'quantity of heat'.
Identify 'false prosperity' communities
I've seen too many communities with tens of thousands of members, daily messages 999+, but the content is all about 'when will it pump', 'how much can it rise', and when someone occasionally asks a technical question, it gets drowned out by the flood of messages. This kind of heat is purely false prosperity; once the price drops, the message volume immediately plummets, and the group quickly turns into a 'rights protection group.'
Looking for signs of high-quality communities
A truly valuable community focuses discussions on the project's technological progress, application scenarios, and actual implementation. Even if the price does not rise, there will still be in-depth discussions in the community, and some may even point out the project's shortcomings. This kind of deep exchange generated spontaneously by users is the key to maintaining long-term heat.
Just like a good movie, it’s not about the ratings being boosted by shills but rather relying on audiences to recommend it spontaneously. Some projects maintain an active developer community and user discussions even in a bear market; such projects often have real substance when a bull market arrives.
04 Trap avoidance guide: two bottom-line judgment logics
After ten years of market trials, I have summarized two core judgment logics that have helped me avoid at least 80% of the traps.
First, focus on 'real money' rather than publicity volume. Don't be misled by the project's publicity rhythm; instead, observe the changes in trading volume and chip distribution during price consolidation. Those projects that still have funds quietly accumulating during downturns are worth paying attention to.
Second, assess community 'discussion quality' rather than 'message quantity'. After joining the project community, don’t look at how many messages there are each day, but rather how many of those messages discuss the substantive content of the project. If most are price discussions and hype, you need to be cautious.
Projects that can traverse bull and bear markets and ultimately achieve returns of several times or even dozens of times almost all share these two characteristics: funds are quietly positioned at the bottom, and the community has genuine discussion heat. Conversely, those projects that rely on publicity and short-term surges mostly end up as 'a flash in the pan.'
Looking back, if my old follower had analyzed carefully, he would have found that there were almost no signs of capital positioning in that project before the price surge; the community was filled with hype and boasting, lacking substantial discussion. In a bear market, every buying decision could be wrong.
There has never been a 'sure profit' trade in the market, nor has there ever been a 'windfall' opportunity. There are indeed opportunities hidden at the end of the bear market, but those opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared, not for speculators betting on luck.
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