Trump wants to pull China into a "Core 5 Countries" group? The world is in shock!

Hu Xijin Observation

A circulating new strategic proposal from Trump, the "Core 5 Countries (C5)", has exploded in the global public opinion arena. The main content consists of a group of five countries: the United States, China, Russia, India, and Japan. Both Politico and Defense One reported on this disruptive geopolitical concept. Since this concept completely excludes Europe, the shock it has caused in Europe is particularly strong. The British Times has also sounded the alarm, stating that the U.S. will persuade Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland to leave the EU. Reports indicate that a secret full version of the 33-page National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the U.S. last Thursday contains the C5 proposal. However, after Politico exposed the secret version of the NSS, the White House denied the existence of any additional versions. White House spokesperson Kelly stated to the media, "There is no alternative, private, or secret version." However, such a statement has failed to stop the crazy spread of the C5 proposal.

▲ White House spokesperson Kelly denied the existence of the "full version" NSS on Thursday. Politico stated that C5 seems fanciful, but simultaneously quoted observers who pointed out that it indeed bears Trump's style, "that is, non-ideological, close to strongmen, and inclined to cooperate with major powers that have spheres of influence in their regions." Tory Tausig, who served as the Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council during the Biden administration, told Politico. Another commentator quoted by Politico believes that the establishment of C5 marks a reversal of Trump's China policy during his first term. He said, "Trump's first administration accepted the framework of great power competition, and that's how we packaged and discussed our relationship with China. Now it has completely flipped." Increasingly more clues and opinions are gathering around C5 and Trump's China strategy and European policy. Defense One reported that this summer, Trump expressed regret over Russia being expelled from the G8 (now G7), calling it "a very big mistake," making headlines. He even hinted at hoping China would join to form a "Nine Countries Group," with the proposed "Core 5 Countries (C5)" all being countries with populations exceeding 100 million. C5 would hold regular summits like G7 to discuss specific topics. Defense One also stated that the full version of the NSS discussed the "failure" of U.S. hegemony, but this term was not mentioned in the publicly released version. However, the full version stated, "Hegemony is a misguided pursuit and is impossible to achieve." The version also pointed out that "the U.S. should not bear all the responsibilities alone."

▲ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to Trump's criticisms of Europe, stating that Trump should not interfere in European democracy. (Source: Politico) Considering the White House's denial of the existence of a secret version, my personal guess is that what was exposed by the media could be an interim version during the writing process of the NSS, which has not been finalized, hence it is unofficial, but it reflects Trump's true mindset and may occasionally be reflected in the actual actions of his team. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. sacrificing Ukraine's interests by making concessions to Moscow is one key manifestation. On China, CNN analyzes that the Biden administration's NSS once referred to China as "the most important geopolitical challenge," and the NSS issued by Trump in 2017 also described China as a challenge to "U.S. power, influence, and interests." However, in the latest version of the NSS released last Thursday, these expressions have disappeared; it places U.S.-China economic competition at the forefront and hardly mentions terms like "authoritarianism" or "human rights violations" directed at China. "The document makes no mention of great power competition with China. China is more viewed as an economic competitor," said David Sachs, an Asia researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, to CNN. CNN quoted experts' opinions that another clue is the remarkably few times China is mentioned in the NSS. In the lengthy 33-page document, China only first appears on page 19, and in the report covering Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and other regions, China occupies only one chapter. In contrast, the NSS released by Biden in 2022 repeatedly mentioned China in its 48 pages. Sachs stated, "What is especially striking is the complete lack of ideological comparison in this document, and there is no mention of human rights issues, whereas the previous two NSS documents were filled with these contents." The Biden administration had emphasized issues in Xinjiang and Tibet, but "this document makes no mention of these." Sachs believes, "Perhaps the recent trade war has unexpectedly diminished the U.S.'s face, changing the White House's perception of Beijing."

▲ Chinese cars waiting to be shipped at the dock. (Source: Wall Street Journal) He also said, "Many people believe that the U.S. is dominant in the escalation of the conflict. In recent months, we have seen a certain degree of interdependence between the U.S. and China... both countries could cause significant harm to each other in the economic field." The new NSS mentions the Taiwan issue more than before, emphasizing that it is urgent to deter conflicts surrounding Taiwan and maintain U.S. military superiority. The U.S. will build a military force capable of effective action in any area of the First Island Chain. Sachs believes, "This is a deterrent signal to Beijing... but the document also softened its wording in other aspects—using the language of 'not supporting' unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, rather than stating 'opposing' any such changes as before." Finally, let me share my personal view. The world is undoubtedly undergoing changes, and China's comprehensive rise is one of the biggest driving forces behind this shift. The acknowledgment and respect the world gives to China's rise are inevitable; the only difference lies in the speed of this acknowledgment and the degree of respect. I believe it is not very important whether Trump formally proposes C5, and even if Trump puts it forward, whether China will accept and join it is also questionable.

▲ Trump and U.S. Defense Secretary Esper. What China needs to do most is to calm down, continue to strengthen its own power, eliminate all bottlenecks in domestic governance, maximize China's development potential, and continuously consolidate domestic unity. The world is opportunistic, and geopolitics is essentially about power dynamics, a game of strength. A continuously developing China will have greater capacity to prevent war and promote peace, which will foster a virtuous cycle for China and the entire world.