When the 'rate cut narrative' becomes mainstream, why did I start to worry?
Today we won't talk about technical indicators or trendy topics; I just want to discuss a narrative that is being overly simplified: does the equation 'rate cuts equal bull market' really hold true? 1. Historical lessons: the 'counterintuitive' rate cut in 2019 Let’s first go back to July 2019, a moment that many have forgotten. The Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut in ten years, and the market was in a frenzy. However, in the following three months, Bitcoin fell from $13,000 to $9,000, a decline of over 30%. Why? Because the market quickly realized: this rate cut was not 'preventive,' but 'reactive'—global economic recession signs had already appeared.
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