$ZEC has plummeted from the historical high of 775. The long-term uptrend line has been completely smashed to pieces. Now, this so-called weekly rebound is merely a technical 'breather' in the bear market.

Let's first take a look at the moving average system. MA7 is lying beneath MA20, and MA20 is lower than the medium-term moving average MA50. This bearish arrangement clearly indicates that the medium-term downtrend is still dominant and firmly in control. Now the price has rebounded to between MA20 and MA50, which is a typical pullback action in a downtrend. In the past two days, the price has been bouncing around the 450 - 470 range under the pressure of the medium to long-term MA50 moving average. Whether it can break through this constraint remains to be seen.

Take another look at the MACD. A golden cross below the zero axis is not a signal for bulls to exert strength; it is purely a small interlude in the downtrend's rebound. Currently, this weekly rebound is just a temporary exhaustion of short-term downward momentum, merely a breather. The medium to long-term bears remain steady, showing no signs of weakening.

The situation on the Bollinger Bands is also not good. Although the price is above the middle track at 425, the resistance at the upper track is extremely strong. At the current rate of downward movement, next week the upper track will reach around 500. By then, the area of 500 - 550 will become a 'solid wall'. Why do I say this? This area was previously a key support zone that the price broke below, and it is now filled with trapped chips, making it incredibly difficult to break through in the short term. I boldly predict that the weekly rebound will likely hit this area and then turn down.

There is still trading volume. During this rebound, the trading volume has been shrinking, a typical situation of rising without volume, with a severe divergence between price and volume. The rise is not supported by increased capital; it relies entirely on existing capital in a futile struggle, or on bears like me adding positions to make up the numbers. The foundation of this rebound is very weak, with no new capital coming in. Want to reverse? No chance!

Based on my previous judgment of Bitcoin's future, if $ZEC cannot break through the strong resistance zone of 500 - 550 with increased volume, and cannot maintain a solid footing, then once this weekly rebound ends, the market is likely to plunge into a new round of main downward wave.

In terms of operations, there was basically no transaction above 470 yesterday, so we will continue to hold steadily and wait for the weekly rebound to conclude. However, I must remind you that the above analysis is just my personal view, so don't take it as investment advice. Investing carries significant risks; you need to be cautious!

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