Moving Averages: Bearish Structure Intact
The current moving average system remains in a clear bearish alignment: MA7 < MA20 < MA50, confirming that the medium-term downtrend continues to dominate. The recent price rebound is occurring between and , which is characteristic of a pullback within a downtrend. Over the past two days, price has repeatedly been capped by the medium- to long-term , oscillating in the 450–470 range, with no confirmed breakout so far.
2️⃣ MACD: Rebound Signal, Not a Trend Reversal
The MACD golden cross formed below the zero axis, a classic signal of a technical rebound in a bearish trend. This weekly rebound reflects short-term downside exhaustion rather than any meaningful shift in bullish momentum. The medium- and long-term bearish structure remains unchanged.
3️⃣ Bollinger Bands: Strong Resistance Ahead
Price has reclaimed the Bollinger middle band near 425, but now faces heavy resistance at the upper band. Based on the current daily trend slope, the upper band is expected to rise toward ~500 next week, forming a significant resistance zone. The 500–550 range represents a previously broken key support area and has now become a dense zone of trapped supply. A short-term breakout through this area will be extremely difficult; the weekly rebound is likely to stall here and form a local top before resuming the decline.
4️⃣ Volume: Rising Without Participation
This rebound has been accompanied by continuously shrinking volume, a textbook case of price–volume divergence. The move lacks support from incremental capital and is largely driven by existing funds or short-covering behavior. Without fresh inflows, the rebound lacks a solid foundation and is unlikely to evolve into a true reversal.
📉 Long-Term Perspective
$ZEC has already collapsed from its historical high of 775, fully breaking the long-term bullish trend. The current weekly rebound should be viewed as technical repair within a broader bear market. Unless price can break above 500–550 with strong volume and hold, the market is likely to enter another major downward leg after this rebound concludes.
📌 Strategy
No trades were executed above 470 yesterday. Continue to remain patient and hold positions, waiting for the weekly rebound to fully play out before the next directional move
