With only a few weeks left until 2026, traders around the world are focused on the same critical price level.
Bitcoin has found support again in the $90,000-$93,000 range, where bulls and bears are engaged in intense competition. As an analyst who has been in the cryptocurrency market for many years, I have witnessed countless critical moments for Bitcoin, but this time it truly feels different.
Market sentiment is subtly changing, gradually recovering from the panic of the first week of December, but uncertainty still looms over everyone. Now, everyone is asking: Can Bitcoin break the $100,000 mark before 2026? I will share my professional viewpoint and show you the truth behind the data.
01 The tug-of-war between bulls and bears, key signals reveal market direction
Currently, Bitcoin trading is in a very critical compression range. The technical aspect shows that Bitcoin is at the end of a symmetrical triangle, with volatility narrowing to an extreme, meaning that once a breakout occurs, there will be a strong unilateral market.
Prices are trapped between an upward trend line and a downward trend line, needing to break $95,500 to confirm a bullish breakout.
From a sentiment perspective, the market is clearly divided into two camps. Bulls believe that a shift in Federal Reserve policy and institutional adoption are long-term positives; bears worry that regulatory uncertainty and economic slowdown will suppress upward movement.
This divergence is vividly manifested in the options market—there are outstanding contracts worth approximately $780 million betting that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before December 27, despite the probability of profit for this contract being only 18.6%.
My view is: the market needs a new catalyst to break the balance, and this catalyst is likely to come from the macro level.
02 Three key factors determine Bitcoin's final trend
In my view, whether Bitcoin can break $100,000 before the end of the year depends on three key factors.
First is the Federal Reserve's policy. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, which is almost a consensus. More importantly, traders expect three more rate cuts before September 2026.
Historical experience shows that a loose monetary policy environment is usually favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve's end to quantitative tightening is an underestimated positive; referring to the situation in 2019, risk assets began to rise significantly 6-12 months after the Federal Reserve ended the last quantitative tightening cycle.
Secondly, ETF fund flows. This is the most significant structural change in the market for 2025—institutional funds are becoming the main driving force behind Bitcoin prices through ETFs.
Data shows that the number of Bitcoins held by U.S. spot ETFs has exceeded 515,000, which is 2.4 times the issuance by miners during the same period. ETF net inflows/outflows have become the most direct supply-demand signal in the short to medium term.
At the beginning of November, the ETF saw a massive inflow of $1.3 billion in a single day, pushing Bitcoin to a historic high. However, a recent outflow of $77 million in a single day shows that institutional sentiment has turned cautious.
Third, there is a change in liquidity structure. According to order book data, Bitcoin currently has two important liquidity clusters: downward liquidity near $90,000 (currently being tested) and upward liquidity near $94,500. If it breaks $94,500, the road to $100,000 will be smoother.
03 Four types of market scenarios, plan your investment strategy
In light of the current market, I have outlined four possible scenarios to help you prepare.
Scenario One: Bull Market Breakthrough (Probability 30%)—Bitcoin strongly breaks the $95,000 resistance level before the end of the year and rallies towards $100,000. This requires significant new inflows into ETFs coupled with favorable macro conditions from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Scenario Two: Range Oscillation (Probability 40%)—Bitcoin continues to oscillate between $90,000 and $95,000 until the end of the year. This situation is most likely to occur as the market needs time to digest the recent gains and await clearer macro signals.
Scenario Three: Retracement Accumulation (Probability 20%)—Bitcoin drops below the $90,000 support, testing the $88,500 or even $85,000 region. This situation would occur in the context of continued outflows from ETFs or macro negatives.
Scenario Four: Black Swan (Probability 10%)—A significant deterioration of the global macro environment or major regulatory negatives causes Bitcoin to sharply pull back below $75,000. In this case, any analysis will become ineffective; cash is king is the only choice.
My advice is: gradually build positions below $90,000, increase positions after breaking $95,500, and set a stop loss below $88,500. This way, regardless of how the market chooses, you can maintain control.
04 Essential for traders: Two key indicators and operational strategies
In such a highly uncertain market environment, trading based solely on intuition is akin to gambling. I personally focus on two key indicators:
First, ETF fund flow. The first thing I do every morning is check the net flow data of ETFs from SoSoValue. When there is sustained net inflow, market risk appetite increases; conversely, caution is warranted.
Secondly, the funding rates for futures. The current annualized financing rate is stable between 8%-12%, and when peaks exceed 20%, it often indicates a local top, while severely negative financing rates correspond to cycle bottoms.
In terms of operational strategy, I adopt a 'core + satellite' asset allocation: the main position is in Bitcoin, with a small allocation in potential altcoins. At the same time, I set clear risk control thresholds—large ETF redemptions, unexpected interest rate hikes, and major regulatory negatives as the main triggers for reducing positions.
I must emphasize that position management is key to survival in the current market. In an environment where volatility may increase dramatically, excessive leverage is undoubtedly suicidal.
The future path has already clearly diverged. If the Federal Reserve turns dovish and ETF funds flow back, $100,000 is just the first target, and in 2026, it may even challenge the $120,000-$150,000 range.
However, if the macro environment deteriorates or regulations tighten, we may face a longer period of consolidation, potentially testing support below $80,000.
As a veteran who has experienced multiple bull-bear transitions, I believe the balance of probabilities slightly leans towards a breakthrough. The possibility of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 before 2026 is about 60%.
But this is not investment advice; it is merely my honest assessment based on the existing data. Regardless of how the market chooses, the wisest approach now is to manage positions, set stop losses, and remain patient.
The market never lacks opportunities, only traders who can survive until tomorrow. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more firsthand information and precise points in the cryptocurrency space; becoming your guide in the crypto world, learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $BTC
