The altcoin season index has now fallen to a new low, yet new projects are still launching vigorously. When can we expect another wave of comprehensive surges in the altcoin season? It seems we would have to wait for a massive influx of liquidity, with so much money that the risk market can't contain it and it overflows.
When the risk market rises faster than money can be printed, money will naturally flow toward the more volatile risk markets. So, are altcoins really a scam? I don't think so. If you have a lot of money, a large asset base, and no high-yield investment channels, you would definitely choose those leading projects. Who would want to take on greater and more uncertain risks? The market is currently divided into a few categories: traditional finance with low-interest capital preservation investments, risk finance including gold, platinum, and leading stocks, plus Bitcoin, and then there's the speculative market, like various small stocks and altcoins.
The economy is not doing well now, making it difficult to make money; everyone is afraid of losing money. Perhaps at some point in the future, there will be a massive influx of liquidity, money will be everywhere, and making money will feel like playing. At that time, the altcoin market will definitely thrive. So, we shouldn't just criticize the market; we need to look at the environment we are in.
Take, for example, when NFTs were at their peak; even a random broken image could be traded for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Who is still talking about that now? Why did some people dare to play back then? It was because they had too much money with nowhere to spend it; altcoins that doubled or tripled in a day couldn't satisfy them, so they chased NFTs that increased by hundreds or thousands of times in a day.
The principle is the same: when the market has ample liquidity, no one is satisfied with the status quo, and everyone is wholeheartedly pursuing higher returns; when liquidity is tight, everyone seeks stability, willing to earn a little less but not to lose.
I myself made a comeback with altcoins; many people may have to wait many years for a chance. When there are no opportunities, one must remain dormant, living long and waiting for good luck. When new things come out, try and make mistakes within one's capabilities; the cost is not high, after all, no one knows what the future holds. Luck plays a significant role, but there will always be new opportunities in the future, whether it's US stocks on-chain, RWA's on-chain yields, or various public chains and L2s.
Don't always say that now is not the time to talk about the present; the market is different in every economic environment. Also, don't keep saying that altcoins will ultimately go to zero; it is unfriendly now, and no one can predict the future. Don't ask me why I don't buy in fully; I will definitely act when there is an opportunity.
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