The market is accumulating strength in silence, and tonight's CPI data may break the balance.
Today is December 13, 2025, Saturday. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around the $90,000 mark, with both bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition at this critical position. The CPI data to be announced tonight is likely to become a key catalyst for determining the short-term direction.
The current market is trapped in a typical 'data waiting mode' — trading volume is shrinking, volatility is narrowing, and most investors choose to wait and see. Behind this calm, it often heralds the brewing of the next big market movement.
01 Market Overview
This morning, Bitcoin tested the support area of 89000-89500 USD again and quickly rebounded, currently hovering around 90320 USD. Ethereum is relatively weak, having once dipped to 3040 USD, just a step away from the psychological barrier of 3000 USD.
The fear and greed index is currently in the 'fear' range at 29, which often indicates the possibility of further downside in the market, but it also shows that most retail investors are hesitant to chase high prices, leaving room for rebounds.
From the perspective of capital flow, institutions seem to be quietly laying out strategies during this volatility. Crypto ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of over 1.36 billion USD in December, reaching a seven-week high. This indicates that large funds have not only not exited during the volatility but are also continuously buying on dips.
On the other hand, the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy shift is still fermenting. Although a 25 basis point rate cut in December has been confirmed, there are differences in the market regarding whether to continue cutting rates in January next year. This uncertainty has led many short-term funds to choose to temporarily exit and observe.
02 In-depth analysis of bullish and bearish factors
The current market is in a typical 'news vacuum' period, with bulls and bears temporarily balanced. However, upon closer observation, several key factors are influencing the market direction.
Where is the bulls' confidence?
The continuous inflow of institutional funds is the biggest support. On just December 12, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 1582 BTC, valued at about 160 million USD. This rhythm of buying on dips indicates that large institutions are not pessimistic about the future market.
At the same time, although the Federal Reserve has expressed a somewhat 'hawkish' stance, the policy shift has been confirmed. Historically, once a rate-cutting cycle begins, risk assets usually see a corrective rise. Currently, the US dollar index is under pressure, and the overall liquidity environment is favorable for cryptocurrencies.
On the technical side, Bitcoin has formed a solid support in the 89000-89500 USD area. The two dips to this area yesterday were quickly rebounded, indicating that there is a large amount of buying interest waiting here. As long as this support holds, the short-term structure remains intact.
What are the bears worried about?
Regulatory pressure is always a sword hanging over our heads. Although there have been friendly signals from US regulators (such as considering including Bitcoin in retirement plans), the global regulatory environment remains complex.
Technical resistance should not be underestimated. Bitcoin faces heavy selling pressure in the 93000-94000 USD area, and repeated attempts to break through have not been effective. Ethereum is facing resistance in the 3270-3300 USD area; only a significant breakout from this area can reverse the current weakness.
The CPI data tonight is the biggest variable. If the inflation data is higher than expected, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's stance on slowing rate cuts, putting pressure on the market.
03 Key data and event outlook
The US CPI data to be released tonight at 21:30 is undoubtedly the market focus. The current market expects the November CPI to rise by 3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 3.9%.
If the CPI is lower than expected, it will strengthen the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative policy, which may push Bitcoin to challenge the resistance area of 93000-94000 USD.
If the CPI is higher than expected, it may trigger concerns about the Federal Reserve slowing down rate cuts, and Bitcoin may dip to the support area of 88500-89000 USD.
In addition to the CPI data, the November non-farm payroll report will also be released this Sunday. These economic data will directly impact the market's judgment on the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January next year (currently at 24.4%), which will trigger market fluctuations.
04 Trading strategies and response plans
Pre-data strategy (current until 21:30)
Maintain a low position, keeping the total position within 30%. The market often experiences unordered fluctuations before important data is released, making heavy positions very risky.
Short-term trading can consider trying to go long with a small position in the support area of 89000-89500, with a stop loss set below 88500. If it rebounds to the resistance area of 93000-93500, consider reducing positions or laying out short positions.
One key point: avoid chasing prices before data is released. The current market is in a balanced state, and blind operations can easily lead to being washed out.
Post-data strategy
If the CPI is lower than expected and Bitcoin breaks through 93000 USD, consider lightly chasing long positions, targeting the 94000-95000 area. However, it is necessary to closely monitor whether the breakout comes with volume, as false breakouts are often traps.
If the CPI is higher than expected and Bitcoin drops below 89000 USD, do not rush to buy the dip; patiently wait for support tests around 88500 or even 85000 before making decisions.
For Ethereum, the 3000 USD mark is crucial. If it falls below this level, it may dip to the 2800-2900 area. If it can hold the support area of 3050-3100 and rebound, there is hope to retest the resistance of 3200-3250.
05 Opportunities and risks from a medium-term perspective
Setting aside short-term volatility, from a medium-term perspective, the market is 'exchanging time for space'. The current consolidation helps digest previous profits and solidify the foundation for future trends.
The regulatory environment continues to improve. The US (CLARITY Act) has been passed by the House, clarifying the regulatory division for crypto assets. The SEC's exploration of a framework for crypto innovation has also released friendly signals, clearing obstacles for institutional funds to enter the market.
On the technical side, Bitcoin still maintains a rebound structure at the weekly level. As long as it does not fall below the key support area of 88000-89000, the rebound pattern that started in early December will not be broken. Ethereum's fundamentals have improved after the Fusaka upgrade, with on-chain transaction fees decreasing by 60%, providing it with support independent of Bitcoin.
On the risk side, be wary of the chain reaction caused by high leverage liquidations. The current market leverage is relatively high, and once key support breaks down, it may trigger a large number of forced liquidations, exacerbating short-term volatility.
This weekend is particularly critical. Not only will the CPI data determine the short-term direction, but the market is also preparing for a decrease in liquidity at the end of the year. In this environment, patience is more important than frequent operations.
After the data is released, if the price can break through the resistance area of 93000-94000 with volume, Bitcoin is expected to move towards the 95000-96000 area. If support is lost, a pullback to the 88500-89000 area will be needed to find support.
Regardless of how the market fluctuates, remember that risk control is always the top priority. Investing is a marathon, not a sprint.
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