Currently, the attention of global traders is focused on the key support range of $90,000-$93,000, which could serve as a launchpad or a trap.
"Bitcoin has once again reached $100,000!" When I saw this news, I was staring at the suddenly surging candlestick on the trading chart. However, this is not reality; it is just a scene I have rehearsed countless times in my mind.
As the countdown to 2025 begins, the entire crypto community is asking the same question: Can Bitcoin reach the $100,000 milestone before 2026? As someone who has experienced multiple market cycles, I will peel back the fog today and take a look at the true signals behind the data.
Current market position: Bitcoin at a crossroads.
As of mid-December, Bitcoin found temporary support in the $90,000-$93,000 range, forming a clear symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. It's like a spring being compressed, ready to launch, but the direction remains uncertain.
Market sentiment is complex. On one hand, the continuous outflow of funds from exchanges indicates that some investors choose to transfer assets to private wallets for long-term holding; on the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen significant capital outflows, with a net outflow of $77.34 million on December 11 alone.
This contradictory phenomenon reveals the divergence among market participants: retail investors may be hoarding, while some institutional investors are taking profits.
An undeniable positive: Where do the bulls' confidence come from?
Although short-term momentum is hesitant, several key factors still support Bitcoin's upward logic from a medium to long-term perspective.
1. The pace of institutional entry has not stopped.
BlackRock's IBIT and other Bitcoin spot ETFs have exceeded $70.4 billion in total scale, which is a significant number. Although there is some capital outflow in the short term, the overall scale is still growing. MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, which have now reached 279,400 coins, worth around $25 billion.
2. The policy environment is gradually becoming clearer.
U.S. regulators have recently concluded years of investigations into companies like Gemini and Uniswap Labs and decided not to take enforcement action. The clarity in regulation provides a safer entry environment for institutional funds.
The Trump administration has taken a friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies, and he is seeking candidates for key positions who are friendly to the crypto industry. Changes in the political environment could act as an accelerator for Bitcoin's rise.
3. Support from macroeconomic factors.
The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points, and while it signals a cautious path for 2026, the rate-cutting cycle has already begun. Historical data shows that a low-interest-rate environment is usually beneficial for the performance of risk assets.
Real challenges: Why the rise won't be immediate
There are many factors to consider, but the market also faces real resistance.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces significant resistance. The range from $92,630 to $93,795 is a clear supply zone, where the exponential moving average cluster overlaps with the upper band of the Donchian Channel. Only a strong breakout above this area can open up a path to $100,000.
Market sentiment remains weak. The crash on December 1 led to a 7% drop in Bitcoin for the month, with a correction of about 31% from the historical high in October. This volatility has deterred many short-term investors.
Global economic uncertainty is increasing. Trade tensions are escalating, and weak consumer confidence data in the U.S. has raised concerns about an economic slowdown. This could lead to widespread pressure on risk assets.
My prediction: What is the probability of breaking through $100,000 before 2026?
Based on my analysis of market data and years of experience, I believe:
The probability of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 before 2026 is about 60%.
More specifically, I believe the probability of achieving this before the end of 2025 is less than 40%, but the likelihood is higher before the end of the first quarter of 2026.
The basis for my judgment is:
Post-halving cyclical patterns show that Bitcoin's price typically reaches a peak 12-18 months after halving. After the halving in 2024, the expected peak will occur between the end of 2025 and early 2026.
Institutional capital needs time to reallocate. The current outflow of ETF funds is likely a short-term profit-taking rather than a long-term trend shift. Once funds flow back in, it will drive prices above key resistance.
The market needs time to digest the recent gains. Bitcoin has rebounded over 120% from last year's low, and it will require a period of consolidation to build enough momentum to break through the psychological barrier of $100,000.
Trader strategy: Seeking certainty amid uncertainty.
For investors with different risk preferences, I suggest:
Short-term traders should pay attention to the breakout situation of the $90,000 support level and the $95,500 resistance level. A breakout above $95,500 may be considered for light positions; a drop below $90,000 could lead to testing support at $88,500 or even $85,000.
Long-term investors can adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy, especially when prices fall below $85,000 for phased buying. The long-term trend of Bitcoin remains upward, and each major pullback presents an opportunity to enter.
Pay attention to key catalysts: including signals from the Fed for further rate cuts, a reflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and more listed companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
Conclusion: Patience is more important than frenzy.
The Bitcoin market has never lacked surprises. Looking back at history, Bitcoin has repeatedly emerged with astonishing trends amid skepticism.
There is not much time left in 2025, but 2026 will be a key year for Bitcoin to possibly create history again. Regardless of whether it can break through $100,000 in the short term, Bitcoin's long-term value proposition remains intact.
In this market, patience often yields better returns than frenzy. When most people are engulfed in fear, stay rational; when most are engulfed in greed, stay cautious—this is the way to survive through bull and bear markets.
What are your views on the future trend of Bitcoin? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! Follow Xiang Ge to stay updated with firsthand information and insights in the crypto space, becoming your guide in the crypto world—learning is your greatest wealth!
