Folks, today the market appears calm on the surface, but there are undercurrents! I just finished analyzing the latest on-chain data and policy trends, and I must say: whether the current 'narrow range fluctuations' are opportunities or traps entirely depends on your level of understanding! Here is my hardcore breakdown:
1. Policy aspect: The 'regular army' of traditional finance is systematically entering the market!
The US SEC has approved DTCC to launch the tokenization of traditional assets, covering mainstream assets such as US stocks and government bonds, set to go live in 2026. This is not only a technological upgrade but also a comprehensive acceptance of blockchain by traditional financial infrastructure.
OCC conditionally approved Ripple, Circle, and five other institutions for banking licenses, enabling them to engage in digital asset custody and stablecoin reserve management in the future.
Why is it important? These actions mean that the compliance process of the cryptocurrency market is accelerating, and long-term incremental capital channels are opening up! But in the short term, be wary of volatility due to expectations before policies are implemented.
2. Capital aspect: On-chain data reveals that the main forces are 'secretly changing cards'!
The inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has significantly decreased, indicating that large holders are reluctant to sell, and short-term selling pressure is weakening.
But on the other hand, ETF capital inflows remain unstable (for instance, BlackRock recently transferred a large amount of BTC to exchanges), indicating that institutional divergence still exists.
Key signal: The supply of stablecoins has exceeded $160 billion, a historical high, which often leads to price increases as it reflects the continuous accumulation of underlying purchasing power!
3. Risk aspect: High leverage is still a 'harvester', don't step into these pits!
In the past 24 hours, there have been frequent liquidations across the network, especially for high-leverage long positions.
The $660 million long position of the whale address (like '1011 Insider Whale') is under pressure, indicating that even large funds struggle to withstand severe volatility.
My view: In a low liquidity year-end market, excessive leverage is 'suicidal behavior'! Be sure to control your positions and set stop-loss orders.
4. Future trend projection: Most likely 'first suppress then uplift'!
Short term (1-2 weeks): The market may continue to test the lower support (BTC attention on $88,000-$89,000, ETH attention on $3,000-$3,150), and if it breaks below, further declines should be anticipated.
Medium term (1-3 months): Once the market strengthens the expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next year (current market betting probability rises to 78%), combined with the tokenization of traditional financial assets, liquidity improvement will drive a new round of market trends.
My strategy: Currently, I will not blindly chase short positions but will gradually allocate quality assets! Focus on whether BTC can break through $92,000 in volume and whether ETH can recover to $3,350 as these two key turning signals.
Finally, let me say something true:
The market always swings between fear and greed, but the true winners are those who silently accumulate while others hesitate! I will closely monitor the movements of on-chain whales and the inflow data of stablecoins, as these are the 'hard indicators' to predict turning points in advance. If you don't want to miss the next wave of market trends, please follow me; my in-depth analysis will continue to be delivered!
(Note: The above is merely a personal opinion record and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made independently.)#Ethereum
