Bitcoin (BTC) continues trading within an ongoing consolidation phase, oscillating around $90,000 at the time of writing this text. Investors are analyzing the cautious December rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its implications for risky assets.
The BTC price action is approaching a key downward trend line that could determine its next directional move. Meanwhile, institutional flows into Spot Bitcoin ETF funds have shown mild inflows. Conversely, Strategy has added more BTC to its treasury reserve.
The tone of Fed policy triggers Bitcoin consolidation
The price of Bitcoin started the week on a positive note, extending the weekend recovery in the first half of the week and holding above 92,600 USD on Tuesday.
However, momentum weakened on Wednesday, and BTC closed at 92,015 USD after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
In a widely anticipated move, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. However, the FOMC meeting signaled a likely pause in January.
Adding to this cautious tone, policymakers only predicted a quarter-point cut for the overall outlook for 2026. This was the same forecast as in September, which eased market expectations for two rate cuts and contributed to short-term pressure on risk assets.
The cautious tone from the Fed, combined with disappointing Oracle earnings, contributed to a brief decline in risk.
All these factors weighed on riskier assets, and the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell to a low of 89,260 USD, then rebounded and ended Thursday above 92,500 USD.
Without the publication of important data from the USA, cryptocurrency markets will now look to speeches from FOMC members and broader risk sentiment for direction.
by the end of the week.
BTC is likely to consolidate in the near term unless a significant catalyst appears.
Uncertainty along the Russia-Ukraine line limits risk dynamics
On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump is “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, as his spokeswoman said on Thursday, he does not want to talk anymore.
Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the United States is pressuring the country to cede land to Russia as part of an agreement ending nearly four years of war.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and protracted peace talks continue to affect global risk sentiment, limiting risk appetite and contributing to Bitcoin's consolidation this week.
Bitcoin forecast: Institutional demand shows mild signs of improvement
Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows mild signs of improvement.
According to SoSoValue data, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of 237.44 million USD by Thursday, following a mild outflow of 87.77 million USD the week before, signaling that institutional investor interest has slightly improved.
However, these weekly inflows remain modest compared to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, ETF inflows should intensify.
On the corporate front, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that from December 1 to 7, it purchased 10,624 Bitcoins for 962.7 million USD at an average price of 90,615 USD.
The company currently holds 660,624 BTC worth 49.35 billion USD. Strategy still maintains significant capacity to raise additional capital, potentially allowing for further large-scale accumulation of Bitcoins.
On-chain data shows a decrease in selling pressure.
The weekly CryptoQuant report from Wednesday highlights that the selling pressure on Bitcoin is starting to wane.
The report noted that exchange deposits decreased as large players reduced their transfers to exchanges.
The chart below shows that the share of total deposits from major players fell from a 24-hour average level of 47% in mid-November to 21% on Wednesday.
At the same time, the average deposit decreased by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC.
CryptoQuant concludes that if selling pressure remains low, the relief rally could push Bitcoin back to 99,000 USD. This level is the lower band of price ranges realized by the trader on-chain, which constitute price resistance during bear markets.
After this level, key price resistances are 102,000 USD (annual moving average) and 112,000 USD (price realized by Trader On-chain).
The Copper Research report also signaled optimism regarding Bitcoin. The report suggests that the four-year BTC cycle has not died but has been replaced.
Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited repetitive return cycles based on costs, as shown in the chart below.
Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper, told FXStreet that “since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin has moved in repetitive mini-cycles, returning to the cost basis and then bouncing back by about 70%.
Since BTC is currently trading near its cost basis of 84,000 USD, this pattern suggests a move north of 140,000 USD within the next 180 days.
If the cost basis increases by 10-15%, as seen in previous cycles, the resulting premium observed at previous peaks gives a target range of 138,000 to 148,000 USD.
Bitcoin forecast: Is the “Santa Rally” ahead of us?
Bitcoin recorded a 17.67% loss in November, disappointing traders who expected a rally based on its strong historical returns in this month (see CoinGlass data below).
December has historically been a positive month for the king of cryptocurrencies, delivering an average return of 4.55%.
Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has generally been the best quarter for BTC, with an average return of 77.38%.
Nevertheless, the results in the last three months of 2025 have been disappointing so far, recording a 19% loss to date.
Has BTC already reached the bottom?
The weekly Bitcoin chart shows that the price finds support around the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 85,809 USD, posting two consecutive green candles after a four-week correction that began at the end of October.
This week, BTC is trading slightly higher, holding above 92,400 USD.
If BTC continues its recovery, it may extend the rally towards the 50-week EMA at 99,182 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart is at 40, pointing upwards and indicating weakening bearish momentum. For the recovery to be sustainable, the RSI should move above the neutral level of 50.
On the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 94,253 USD (drawn from the April low of 74,508 USD to the record high of 126,199 USD set in October) on Wednesday.
However, on Thursday, BTC bounced back after re-testing the psychological level of 90,000 USD.
If BTC breaks above the downward trend line (drawn by connecting multiple peaks since early October) and closes above the resistance level of 94,253 USD
resistance level, may extend the rally towards the psychological level of 100,000 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral level of 50, suggesting a lack of short-term momentum on both sides.
To maintain upward momentum, the RSI should move above the neutral level.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the end of November, which remains intact, supporting the bullish thesis.
If BTC were to resume a downward correction, the first key support is at 85,569 USD, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
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