In the Crypto market, money is not just measured by quantity, but by age. HODL Waves is the ultimate Onchain metric that classifies capital into two distinct camps Hot Money (Young Money) and Smart Money (Old Money). Understanding the rotation between these two groups is holding the map to the market cycle.
🔸 Classifying the Flow:
Young Money < 1 Week to 3 Months.
This is speculative, impatient, and emotional capital.
It represents new entrants, prone to FOMO when prices rise and Panic Selling when they drop.
When these short-term bands expand, the market is overheating.
Old Money > 1 Year.
This is the capital of Long term Holders and Whales.
They buy when no one cares and hold through the winter.
When these bands dominate, the market is in a sustainable accumulation phase.
🔸 At the peak of every Bull Run, you will always see a recurring phenomenon:
Old Money bands shrink. Whales start dumping coins they bought at the bottom.
Young Money bands expand massively. Retail investors rush in to buy those coins at peak prices.
👉 This is the transfer of wealth from Strong Hands to Weak Hands. When Young Money occupies more than 50 to 60% of Realized Cap, a crash is inevitable because there is no one left to buy higher.
🔹 Do not just look at the price. Look at the colors of the waves.
If you see warm colored bands Red,Orange spiking vertically, prepare your exit plan.
If you see cool colored bands Blue, Purple expanding and dominating, hold tight or accumulate, because Whales have not left the game yet.
Are the Bitcoins you hold Old Money or Young Money? Do you realize your position determines 90% of your winning probability?
News is for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making a decision.
