Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be traded in the recent consolidation phase, hovering around $90,000 at the time of this report on Friday, while investors analyze the Fed's cautious rate cut in December and its implications for risk assets.
BTC's price action approaches a fundamental downtrend line that could determine its next directional move. Meanwhile, institutional flows to spot Bitcoin ETFs showed modest inflows, and Strategy added more BTC to its treasury reserve.
Fed policy tone prompts consolidation in Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin started the week on a positive note, extending its recovery from the weekend during the first half of the week and staying above $92,600 on Tuesday (9).
However, momentum faded on Wednesday, with BTC closing at $92,015 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
In a widely anticipated decision, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points. But the FOMC meeting signaled a likely pause in January.
Raising the tone of caution, policymakers projected only a quarter-point cut for the overall 2026 outlook. This was the same outlook as in September, which moderated market expectations for two rate cuts and contributed to short-term pressure on risk assets.
The Fed's cautious tone, combined with Oracle's disappointing results, contributed to a brief risk-off move.
All these factors pressured riskier assets, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization falling to a low of $89,260 before recovering and closing above $92,500 on Thursday.
With no major U.S. data releases ahead, crypto markets will now watch the speeches of FOMC members and broader risk sentiment for direction.
at the end of the week.
BTC is likely to consolidate in the short term unless a significant catalyst emerges.
Uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine limits risk appetite.
In the geopolitical scenario, U.S. President Donald Trump is "extremely frustrated" with Russia and Ukraine and no longer wants to talk, his spokesperson said on Thursday.
Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the U.S. was pressuring the country to cede territory to Russia as part of a deal to end a nearly four-year war.
These persistent geopolitical tensions and stalled peace negotiations continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, limiting risk appetite and contributing to Bitcoin's consolidation so far this week.
Institutional demand shows slight signs of improvement.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows slight signs of improvement.
According to data from SoSoValue, the spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. recorded a total inflow of $237.44 million by Thursday, after a modest outflow of $87.77 million the previous week, signaling that institutional investor interest has improved somewhat.
However, these weekly inflows remain small compared to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, inflows into ETFs must intensify.
In the corporate landscape, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that it purchased 10,624 Bitcoins for $962.7 million between December 1 and 7, at an average price of $90,615.
The company currently holds 660,624 BTC, valued at $49.35 billion. Strategy still retains substantial capacity to raise additional capital, which may allow for greater large-scale Bitcoin accumulation.
On-chain data points to relief in selling pressure.
Wednesday's weekly CryptoQuant report highlights that selling pressure on Bitcoin is starting to decrease.
The report notes that exchange deposits have decreased as large participants reduced their transfers to the platforms.
The chart below shows that the share of total deposits from large participants fell from a maximum 24-hour average of 47% in mid-November to 21% on Wednesday.
At the same time, the average deposit fell by 36%, from 1.1 BTC on November 22 to 0.7 BTC.
CryptoQuant concludes that if selling pressure remains low, a relief rally could bring Bitcoin back to $99,000. This level is the lower range of Trader's On-chain Realized Price bands, which acts as price resistance during bear markets.
After this level, the main price resistances are $102,000 (one-year moving average) and $112,000 (the Trader's On-chain Realized Price).
The Copper Research report also signaled optimism regarding Bitcoin. The document suggests that BTC's four-year cycle is not dead; it has been replaced.
Since the launch of the spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited repeatable Cost-Base Return Cycles, as shown in the chart below.
Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that "Since the launch of the spot ETFs, Bitcoin has been moving in repeatable mini-cycles, where it retreats to its cost base and then recovers by about 70%.
With BTC now trading near its cost base of $84,000, this pattern suggests a move above $140,000 in the next 180 days.
If the cost base rises by 10% to 15%, as in previous cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a target range of $138,000 to $148,000.
Bitcoin: Christmas rally in sight?
Bitcoin recorded a loss of 17.67% in November, disappointing traders who expected a rally based on its strong historical returns for the month (see CoinGlass data below).
December has historically been a positive month for the leading cryptocurrency, showing an average return of 4.55%.
Analyzing the quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has been the best for BTC overall, with an average return of 77.38%.
Still, the performance in the last three months of 2025 has been disappointing so far, recording a loss of 19% for now.
Is BTC forming a bottom?
The weekly Bitcoin chart shows the price finding support around the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,809, recording two consecutive green candles after a four-week correction that started at the end of October.
This week, BTC is trading a bit higher, remaining above $92,400.
If BTC continues its recovery, it could extend the rally towards the 50-week EMA at $99,182.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is at 40, pointing upwards and indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, the RSI must move above the neutral level of 50.
On the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin was rejected on Wednesday (10) at the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%, at $94,253 (drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,199, set in October).
However, on Thursday, BTC rebounded after testing its psychological level of $90,000 again.
If BTC breaks above the downtrend line (drawn connecting several peaks since early October) and closes above the resistance level of $94,253,
could extend the rally towards the psychological level of $100,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral level of 50, suggesting a lack of short-term momentum for either side.
For bullish momentum to be sustained, the RSI must move above the neutral level.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the end of November, which remains intact, supporting the optimistic thesis.
If BTC resumes its downward correction, the first major support is at $85,569, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
The article Bitcoin (BTC) reacts little in the week after Fed decision was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
