Solana (SOL) is currently trading within a market decision area based on high trading volume density (Volume Shelf).
The impulsive selling momentum that followed the downward break has stopped, but the upward trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
The most likely scenario is a conditional technical rebound, considering the $195 level as a critical testing point.
2️⃣ The market context and technical structure (Market Structure)
A previous ascending channel/wedge has been broken downwards → A structurally negative signal.
After the breakout, a sharp impulsive sell occurred.
Current price:
Selling momentum has faded
Moving sideways
Positioned within an institutional exchange area
Conclusion:
Selling has temporarily ended, but the trend has not flipped yet.
3️⃣ Volume Profile Analysis
Price is trading at Lower High Volume Node.
This area:
Liquidity Absorption Area
Decision area, not a crossing area
Integrated Significance:
Real volume support
Potential Bottom
No confirmation for a breakout without additional signals
4️⃣ Critical price levels 🎯
Level Price Significance
Current support Current area Volume support / Potential Bottom
First Resistance Broken trend line Structural test
50% Fibonacci 195$ Retracement Target / Key Resistance
0.618 Fibonacci 218$ Requires a confirmed breakout
100% Retrace 295$ Only after restoring the trend
Golden Ratio 418$ Complete Market Cycle Scenario
📌 195$ is not just a profit target, but a market decision point.
5️⃣ Scenario Matrix (Decision Matrix)
🟢 Positive scenario (conditional)
Conditions:
Staying above volume support
Breakout of the broken trend line with volume
Positive daily close
Result:
Retracement towards 180–195$
Then subsequent reevaluation
🔴 Failure Scenario
Conditions:
Clear break and daily close below the current volume area
Result:
Temporary bottom failure
Re-testing lower lows
Delay of the bullish scenario
6️⃣ Risk Management and Recommendation
✔️ Light DCA adoption within the current area
❌ Avoid aggressive entry
✔️ Reinforcement only:
After a confirmed breakout with volume
Or a deeper drop while volume remains supportive
Invalidation Level:
Clear daily close below the current volume support area.
🧠 Final Summary (One-Line Thesis)
Solana stands on supported ground with volume,
But the launch button has not been pressed yet.
The opportunity exists… and the decision is in the hands of the market.
