#美联储降息

Next week's macro outlook: CPI data will be released soon, which may further affect the expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path.

On December 13 (Friday), the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected this week and released dovish signals, but the real challenges faced by the artificial intelligence sector led to a divergence in the performance of the US stock and bond markets. Long-term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by about 5 basis points during this week's 'Federal Reserve rate cut week'.

Key macro events for next week are as follows:

Major Federal Reserve officials will speak

Monday 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Mester will give a speech;

Monday 23:30: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams will speak on economic prospects;

Thursday 01:30: 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on economic prospects.

Key economic data releases (all at 21:30 Beijing time)

Thursday: US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year / Core CPI year-on-year;

US November seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month / Core CPI month-on-month;

Number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 13.

Friday 23:00: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value;

US December one-year inflation expectation final value.

Market focus analysis: Next week's US November CPI data will be a key event for the dollar's performance. The latest CPI year-on-year is about 3%, still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

If the CPI data is below market expectations, it will further strengthen the rationale for the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face greater downward pressure; conversely, if the data is above expectations, it may weaken rate cut expectations, leading to a rebound in the dollar and pushing up US Treasury yields.

Overall, next week's data and statements from Federal Reserve officials will provide more clues for the 2026 monetary policy path, which is worth close attention.