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BREAKING: The odds of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair surge to 37% as President Trump says he is "leaning towards Warsh or Hassett," per Polymarket.
This comes just hours after President Trump said he wants rates to be "1% or lower."
A new era of Fed policy is near.
$BTC
#TrumpTariffs
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SILVER DID NOT RISE 67% THIS YEAR. It rose 103%. The entire financial media got it wrong by 40%. And that is the least important thing I found. What I found when I went looking: Silver lease rates hit 39% in October. The last time that happened was 1980. Physical silver is being airlifted between New York and London because the paper market and physical market are diverging at levels not seen in 45 years. The copper market has fractured. The COMEX to LME spread hit 26.6% in July. Historical average is below 1%. There is no longer a global copper price. There is an American price and everyone else. China implemented a 0.1% rule on rare earths. If your product contains more than 0.1% Chinese rare earth content, anywhere in the world, you need Beijing's permission to sell it. Every advanced manufactured product on Earth is now potentially hostage. The Pentagon announced a $500 million cobalt purchase in August. By October they cancelled it. Prices moved faster than the US government could act. The IEA documented that critical minerals processing concentration INCREASED from 2020 to 2024. Top three nations rose from 82% to 86%. Every dollar spent on supply chain resilience achieved the opposite. Central banks bought 694 tonnes of gold in nine months. Fourth consecutive year above 700 tonnes. They are not trading. They are positioning. The rules that governed commodity markets for forty years are breaking simultaneously. Geography now matters more than geology. Policy now matters more than price. Physical now matters more than paper. The Great Divergence is not a forecast. It is already here. $BTC #BTCVSGOLD
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ETH/USD $ETH is in a broadening wedge (aka megaphone) continuation in a downtrend. Rejection from the prior channel (in white). These are bearish qualities. Likeliest direction is down. Ethereum looks pretty similar to BTC (see post below).
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$BTC is in a bearish consolidation pattern no matter how you frame it. Still waiting for BTC to make a decision and choose a direction, but it's gotta be close. Range is tightening. Does it HAVE to break down? No. Is it more likely to than not? Yes. This follows the rule: "the trend tends to continue". Odds? 60% of a break down. (I made this figure up. It's just an estimate.) If BTC drops (the bearish continuation pattern(s) currently suggest that outcome is most likely) ALTs will follow down even more. That would be true despair, hopelessness and throwing in the towel, from a sentiment point of view. That would also likely mark the local bottom for months to come. The relief rally that would follow would be sizeable. Potentially, the sooner we rip off the bandaid the sooner we can get a juicy bounce. Going straight up from here would be acceptable too, but it seems less likely, given the bearish continuation pattern.
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$BTC And it’s the 14th. If the 5 month pattern holds, BTC should see at least a 5% drop within the next 1–2 weeks. This is roughly what I’d expect to see.
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Most people focused on Powell this week.
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