Itaú Unibanco Holding SA, the largest private bank in Latin America, has advised clients to allocate up to 3% of their investment portfolio to Bitcoin for the year 2026.
This bank views cryptocurrency not as a speculative asset, but as a tool to protect against the depreciation of the Brazilian real.
Why does Itau want its clients' investments in Bitcoin?
In a strategic note, analysts from the bank in São Paulo indicated that investors are facing dual challenges from global price uncertainty and domestic currency volatility. They reasoned that this situation requires a new approach to portfolio construction
The bank recommends allocating 1% to 3% of the portfolio to Bitcoin to achieve returns that are uncorrelated with the domestic economic cycle
Bitcoin is an asset that differs from fixed-income securities, traditional stocks, or domestic assets, with its own dynamics and potential for return generation. Due to its global, decentralized asset status, Bitcoin acts as a hedge against currency risk, the bank stated
Itaú emphasizes that Bitcoin should not become a core asset in the portfolio, but rather serve as a supplementary allocation that must be adjusted according to each investor's risk tolerance
The goal is to create returns that are tightly unlinked from the domestic economic cycle while partially hedging against currency depreciation, as well as maintaining the opportunity for long-term appreciation
The bank points out that there is a relatively low correlation between Bitcoin and traditional asset classes, arguing that an allocation of 1% to 3% can enhance diversification without significantly increasing overall portfolio risk
This approach, as stated in the note, requires moderation, a firm will, and a long-term perspective, rather than merely responding to short-term price volatility
The attempt to perfectly time an investment in assets like Bitcoin or in other foreign markets is risky and often does not yield the expected results, the bank warns
Itaú's 3% cap aligns this approach with the recommendations of global leaders and reduces the gap with institutions in the United States
Interestingly, leading US banks such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have recommended that clients allocate up to 4% of their assets to this leading digital asset
However, for Brazilian investors, the risks vary
Itaú noted that in a world where economic cycles are shorter and more frequently impacted by external shocks, Bitcoin exhibits a hybrid nature that differs from traditional assets
The bank stated that this leading cryptocurrency has both high-risk asset characteristics and global store-of-value assets, arguing that this mix offers a flexibility that fixed-income securities can no longer guarantee
