【Next week's 'Inflation Judgment Day' is coming! The U.S. CPI data becomes the final touchstone for the rate cut cycle】

Despite the Federal Reserve having started rate cuts and released dovish signals last week, market divergences regarding the subsequent policy path have not eased. Next week, a series of key events and data will follow, among which the most eye-catching is undoubtedly the U.S. November CPI inflation report released on Thursday evening, whose result may become the 'deciding factor' for the mid-term direction of the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and global risk assets.

📅 Core Schedule: CPI Sets the Tone

Thursday 21:30 U.S. November non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, core CPI year-on-year, and month-on-month data

On the same day, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week will also be released.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and final inflation expectations

💡 Why is this CPI so critical?

Currently, U.S. inflation still hovers around 3%, higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target. If the CPI data is lower than expected, it will strengthen the logic of 'inflation under control → continue to cut rates', pushing the U.S. dollar further weaker and risk assets stronger; conversely, if the data is higher than expected, it may trigger a market repricing of the rate cut pace, potentially reversing the current market sentiment.

🗣️ Federal Reserve officials speak intensively, policy signals continue to be released

Next week, several Federal Reserve officials will give speeches, including New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic. Their statements before and after the CPI data release will be carefully interpreted by the market, and any changes in wording regarding inflation and employment could amplify market volatility.

⚠️ Market Situation: Waiting for Direction Amid Divergence

It is noteworthy that despite the rate cut last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen instead of falling, indicating that market concerns about long-term inflation and economic resilience remain. The divergence in the performance of the U.S. stock and bond markets suggests that capital has not yet formed a consensus expectation.

A 'macro judgment' led by inflation data is about to begin. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美SEC推动加密创新监管