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瓦达西瓦刘
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从历史规律看,在2024年日本退出负利率后,加密市场曾出现“短期承压、中期走强”的局面。长期来看,
比特
币的价格更取决于全球宏观流动性和其自身的供需叙事。
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· 美债:对利率政策更敏感的长期国债收益率显著上升(债券价格下跌),意味着市场在修正对未来资金成本的预期。 · 原油:下跌的主因与经济前景关联较弱,主要是行业自身供应过剩的担忧持续主导市场情绪。
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可能会进一步提振市场;反之,若传递“鹰派”信号(如暗示降息周期可能放缓),则可能引发波动。
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近期日本央行强烈的加息预期,确实已成为影响加密货币市场,特别是比特币价格波动的核心宏观因素。其影响主要通过一个关键金融操作——“日元套息交易”来传导。
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· 路径:直接向金融体系注入流动性(“放水”)→ 充裕的流动性寻求高回报资产 → 比特币等被视为受益于通胀和美元贬值的资产 → 通常利好比特币。 · 下任主席:鸽派 (如凯文·哈塞特) · 路径:市场提前交易“持续降息”和“宽松监管”的强烈预期 → 风险资产估值逻辑改变 → 对加密行业形成中长期结构性利好。
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为刷积分而交易的代币价格可能上涨,操作成本增加。 交易磨损成本依然存在,若收益不及预期,参与性价比显着降低。 空投收益预期 新项目上线估值可能更高,空投收益预期提升。 市场估值承压,空投代币上市后破发风险增大。
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